323
FXUS66 KMFR 062332
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
432 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEW HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING SET OVER SOME STATIONS.
* A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY EVENING WITH A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE REGION.
* COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME COOLER
THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. THE END RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MOUNT SHASTA CITY'S OLD RECORD OF 88 IS THE
ONLY RECORD THAT APPEARS TO BE AT RISK THIS AFTERNOON. WE'RE STILL
FORECASTING A HIGH OF 88, ALTHOUGH THE CURRENTLY HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ARE TENDING A BIT BEHIND THE FORECAST.
IN ANY CASE, MOUNT SHASTA'S HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 88 ON
WEDNESDAY IS ALSO AT RISK AS WE'RE FORECASTING A HIGH OF 89. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL
TROUGH APPEARS MORE VISIBLE WITH INVERTED 850 MB HEIGHTS AND
1000-500 MB THICKNESS CONTOURS ALONG THE COAST AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEFINITELY A LATE SUMMER PATTERN
ON WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE 500 MB RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOWER 90'S WEST OF THE CASCADES. KLAMATH
FALL'S OLD RECORD OF 87 HAS A CHANCE TO FALL OR PERHAPS BE TIED
AS WE'RE FORECASTING 86. IN ADDITION, MT SHASTA CITY'S OLD RECORD
OF 88 SET IN 2022 IS AT RISK OF FALLING TO A NEW HIGH OF 89.
THINGS FINALLY START TO CHANGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH FALLING OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER. IT ALSO APPEARS THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SPED UP COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. AS OF NOW, MODELS ARE BRINGING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING INSTEAD OF FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE WROTE YESTERDAY.
IT'S STILL LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. ODDLY ENOUGH, THE POP FORECAST IS PEAKING IN THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY WHERE WE SHOULD BE UNDER SOME ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW. WE'LL SEE IF ASHLAND AND THE SISKIYOUS SEE RAIN
WHILE MEDFORD STAYS DRY.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CANADA WILL START TO
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE NOTABLE
AND PUSH US TO 'FALL' LIKE WEATHER. HIGHS IN MEDFORD WILL FALL TO
66 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS ALMOST A 30 DEGREE DROP
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE'LL HAVE A 20% CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.
THE COOLER FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NEXT WEEK. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE APPROACHING FREEZING IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS SOME MID TO
LOWER 30'S AROUND THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. THESE LOWS COULD
BE TOO LOW AS A TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AND SOME CLOUD COVER
SHOULD PREVENT US FROM COOLING OFF TOO MUCH.
OVERALL, WARM AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHOVES US INTO FALL. MINIMAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
-SMITH
AVIATION...07/00Z TAFS
VFR LEVELS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE
MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH BEND TERMINAL THIS
EVENING AND MAY STAY IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CLEARING. THERE'S ALSO SOME
INDICATION OF MVFR CEILINGS REACHING INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THAT POSSIBILITY SEEMS
SLIGHT.
FOR OTHER AREAS, VFR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2026
A
PERSISTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. AS TYPICAL IN
THESE PATTERNS, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED FROM GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS
AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL RETURN DAILY DURING THE EVENINGS AND
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THERMAL TROUGH COULD BRING
VERY STEEP SEAS NORTHWARD TO AROUND BANDON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE UNTIL LATE
WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. MARINE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY, BUT ADDITIONAL GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND PERSISTING UNSETTLED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INCOMING LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM A STORM CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF JAPAN AND THE ACTIVE TROPICS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
WE WILL SEE THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page