121
FXUS66 KMFR 072227
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY WARM TEMPERATURES NOW, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY, WITH NEW
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING SET OVER SOME STATIONS.
* A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES NORTHWARD.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST SIDE.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS. AREAS OF
FROST ARE LIKELY FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
* MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD THROUGH MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY,
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. WE'RE AT THE TIME OF THE YEAR, THAT TOMORROW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BEING THE WARMEST IT WILL BE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT YEAR.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY TO BE THE CASE FOR BROOKINGS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BUT MOSTLY FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES WITH ANY
MEASUREABLE AMOUNTS BEING BARELY MEASUREABLE. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
STRONGER AFTERNOON BREEZES ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE.
THE MAIN ASPECT OF THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, VERY NOTICEABLE,
COOLING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 TO 12
DEGREES LOWER ON FRIDAY THAN ON THURSDAY.
FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH INLAND HIGHS
A SUBSTANTIAL 15 TO 20 DEGREES ADDITIONALLY COLDER. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL ALSO BE NEARLY
AS COLD ON SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH WITH SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT LESS
COLD.
THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE. BUT, THERE IS ALSO A DRIER
CONTINGENT OF SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE ECMWF FAMILY, THAT
WOULD BRING A DRIER FORECAST WITH MODEST WARMING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL LEVELS WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION...07/18Z TAFS
PATCHY LIFR WILL LINGER FROM GOLD BEACH TO
BROOKINGS INTO THIS EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, OCCASIONAL AREAS IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
AND ALSO A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIFR FROM GOLD BEACH TO
BROOKINGS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST FROM
AROUND 18Z ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INLAND, EXPECT VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2026
THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON WAS TO EXTEND THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS TO COVER
ALL OF THAT AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEANTIME, SEAS WILL REMAIN
STEEP ELSEWHERE.
A PERSISTING THERMAL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
TO VERY STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS TYPICAL IN THESE
PATTERNS, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTHWARD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS WITH THE
HIGHEST OF THE STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DISRUPTING THE THERMAL TROUGH AND PRODUCING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WEST-NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING
FROM A STORM CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN AND THE ACTIVE
TROPICS. WHILE SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 OR 7 FEET, THE
SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 1 FOOT AT 27 SECONDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE IT
PEAKS AT 19 SECONDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS
BAR CONDITIONS AND THE HEAVIEST SURF SO FAR THIS SEASON. SWELL WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4 TO 6
FT WHILE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14 SECONDS.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
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