585
FXUS66 KMFR 080923
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
223 AM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH NEW DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS POSSIBLE AT SEVERAL STATIONS.
* A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SLOPES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS. WIDESPREAD
FROST IS LIKELY FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY, PRODUCING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (15 TO 20
DEGREES) ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WE'RE AT THE TIME OF THE YEAR,
THAT TODAY HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BEING THE WARMEST IT WILL BE
UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT YEAR. SEVERAL DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE TIED
OR BROKEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MUCH LIKE MOUNT SHASTA AND
MONTAGUE DID YESTERDAY.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA, PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
FRIDAY, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOSTLY DRY. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THE WHOLE AREA WILL MISS
OUT ON RAIN, AS THERE ARE SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ROGUE/UMPQUA DIVIDE
AND THE SISKIYOUS, WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE BREEZY
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES.
BY SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD. THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL
BE NOTABLE, AROUND 20 TO 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY,
AND CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY FEEL LIKE THE SEASON THE CALENDAR SAYS
IT IS. WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD, SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS
POSSIBLE, SO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING IN AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AS A RESULT, THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE ROGUE,
ILLINOIS, AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS, AND IS POSSIBLE FOR THE UMPQUA
BASIN AS WELL.
BY LATE MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT NOTHING LIKE
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...08/12Z TAFS
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BURN BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNTIL LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY,
BEFORE RETURNING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2026
A
PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS
TYPICAL IN THESE PATTERNS, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL
BE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED FROM GOLD
BEACH SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS
IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, DISRUPTING THE THERMAL TROUGH AND PUSHING THE AREA OF
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTH FOR A BRIEF TIME SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN GUSTY NORTH WINDS RETURN SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED AROUND TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WEST-NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC NEAR JAPAN. WHILE SWELL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 OR 7 FEET, THE SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 1 FOOT AT
27 SECONDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE IT PEAKS AT AROUND 5 FEET AT 19
SECONDS LATER SUNDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS BAR CONDITIONS,
HEAVIER THAN NORMAL SURF, AND ABNORMAL CURRENTS. SWELL WILL THEN
VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4 TO 6 FT
WHILE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14 SECONDS.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2026
THE
FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
ORIGINATING FROM A STORM OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN EARLIER THIS WEEK,
THE WEST-NORTHWESTS SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OVER 25 SECONDS. SWELL WILL THEN
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT AROUND
5 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF UNUSUAL SIZE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM, AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1
AM, THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
AND LATE EVENING HOURS.
IF VISITING THE COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY, STAY VIGILANT FOR INCOMING
WAVES. STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
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