812
FXUS66 KMFR 082210
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
310 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST
AND ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
* FURTHER COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS. WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY
FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
* A BRIEF, MODEST WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM, BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
PAST WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE COAST
AND DOUGLAS COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE LAST OF
90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEAR IN THE VALLEYS OF JACKSON,
JOSEPHINE, AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THOUGH, THE LIKELIHOOD IS FOR
SOME DAYS THAT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS MONTH.
THE CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER IS ARRIVING WITH A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL
DIG SOUTH OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA, AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES OF COOLING,
WHICH WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY (DUE TO THE LATER FRONTAL ARRIVAL) ON THE EAST SIDE. IT
WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, WEST AND NORTH FACING
SLOPES WILL BE FAVORED FOR WRINGING OUT A TRACE OR VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF RAIN. BESIDES THOSE EFFECTS, WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30
MPH...STRONGEST IN MODOC COUNTY.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MUCH
THE SAME AREA, THEN ALSO IN THE EVENING ON SATURDAY FOR THE EAST
SIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER COOLING DURING THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE APPROACHING FREEZING IN
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. AS A
RESULT, THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON LOOKS LIKELY FOR
THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS, AND IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE UMPQUA BASIN AS WELL.
BY LATE MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL MOSTLY
WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME SIMILARITY TO THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM. BUT, THERE IS ALSO A CONTINGENT OF ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE WEAKER AND WOULD KEEP OUR AREA
COMPLETELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY REACHING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION...08/18Z TAFS
PATCHY LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
LINGERING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND NEAR BROOKINGS THIS MORNING, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE CONTINUING JUST OFFSHORE. LIFR IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THAT AREA THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME
LIFTING OF A PERSISTENT DECK TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. ALSO, IFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY, INCLUDING
ROSEBURG, AROUND 13Z TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2026
A
PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE AROUND THE BROOKINGS AREA. STEEP AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WEST-NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC NEAR JAPAN. WHILE SWELL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 OR 7 FEET, THE SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 1 FOOT AT
27 SECONDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE IT PEAKS AT AROUND 6 FEET AT 20 TO 22
SECONDS LATER SUNDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS BAR CONDITIONS,
HEAVIER THAN NORMAL SURF, AND ABNORMAL CURRENTS. SWELL WILL THEN
VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4 TO 6 FT
WHILE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14 SECONDS.
-SMITH
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2026
THE
FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
ORIGINATING FROM A STORM OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN EARLIER THIS WEEK,
THE WEST-NORTHWESTS SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS
SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OVER 25 SECONDS. SWELL WILL THEN
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT AROUND
5 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF UNUSUAL SIZE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM, AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1
AM, THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
AND LATE EVENING HOURS.
IF VISITING THE COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY, STAY VIGILANT FOR INCOMING
WAVES. STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
PZZ376.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page