212
FXUS66 KMFR 091156
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
456 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
DISCUSSION
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...09/12Z TAFS
IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO, CEILINGS HAVE
RISEN TO MVFR AT NORTH BEND AND POINTS NORTHWARD, INDICATIVE OF
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AHEAD OF
TODAY'S FRONT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG PERSIST SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH.
INLAND, IT'S VFR. PATCHY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT EXISTING CEILINGS TO LIFT TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY COAST/JUST INLAND; DRY
ELSEWHERE. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BREEZY W-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING, HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADES (25-30 KT). -SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 409 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* COOL DOWN BEGINS TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE RISK EAST SIDE.
* RETURN TO FALL WEATHER AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. COOL DAYS AND
COLDER NIGHTS. COULD BE SOME RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW FAR
EAST SIDE SAT NIGHT/SUN.
* WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY WEST SIDE VALLEYS; FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
* LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT THE COAST/DOUGLAS COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
* GENERAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED TUESDAY-FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK;
WARMEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHARP SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AS A RESULT,
WE'LL SEE BREEZY TO AT TIMES WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES (GUSTS TO
35 MPH). IT'LL REMAIN WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY OVER THE EAST SIDE,
BUT COOLING WILL ALREADY BEGIN WEST OF THE CASCADES (COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS). SO, HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES F COOLER FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WHILE EAST SIDE AREAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR
JUST A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS AND EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE, ESPECIALLY MODOC COUNTY.
AS A RESULT, WE HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1-7 PM PDT.
PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID SPARKS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WINDY, DRY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT ITSELF WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE,
BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY IT ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THEN TONIGHT ALONG
THE NW-FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN (CASCADES/SISKIYOUS).
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
IT'LL BE BACK TO COOL, FALL WEATHER INLAND WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S OVER THE EAST SIDE. IF YOU'RE HEADED TO CRATER LAKE, THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE UP THERE IS A CHILLY 39F! -- A FAR CRY FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS! A DECIDED LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR MOST DURING SATURDAY, THOUGH THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OUT OVER THE OCEAN, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD REACH THE COAST OR AT LEAST NW SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NBM WANTS TO SHOW A CORRIDOR OF
INCREASED MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM AROUND MT SHASTA
REGION/MEDICINE LAKE UP ACROSS SE KLAMATH, LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW (A 20-50% CHANCE) IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
THIS WILL BRING RISK OF FROST FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON
SATURDAY NIGHT. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY FOR MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS, THOUGH
NORTHERLY BREEZES KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EAST SIDE AREAS
WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
IF IT DOESN'T FROST SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FARTHER
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND, AT THIS TIME, THAT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST
NIGHT WEST OF THE CASCADES. PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES <36
DEGREES F FOR MEDFORD/ASHLAND/GRANTS PASS ARE IN THE 60-80% CHANCE
RANGE. ROSEBURG'S IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE.
DRY, SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY (THOUGH NBM WANTS
TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE).
THINK THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THEN THAT THE MOISTURE IS
IN SE OREGON.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGING AND MAY
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TO NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT A
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS. IT
WON'T BE NEARLY AS WARM AS IT WAS THOUGH THE 1ST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
-SPILDE
AVIATION...09/06Z TAFS...ALONG THE COAST, LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF LIFR ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM BROOKING SOUTH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. INLAND, AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA BASIN FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING AT
ROSEBURG (RBG). LOW CEILINGS IN THE UMPQUA ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AND
CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING. ALONG THE COAST, LIFR WILL LIFT TO MVFR
IN THE LATE MORNING, THEN EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR OTHER INLAND AREAS, EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CEILINGS TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE UMPQUA WITH LOW CHANCES (15-30%)
FOR RAIN.
MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2026...GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST OFFSHORE OF BROOKINGS. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WEST-NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC NEAR JAPAN. WHILE THE HIGH ENERGY
SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET, THE ARRIVING SWELL OF 1
FOOT AT 27 SECONDS ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD TO A PEAK AT AROUND 6
FEET AT 20 TO 22 SECONDS LATER SUNDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
DANGEROUS BAR CONDITIONS, HEAVIER THAN NORMAL SURF, AND ABNORMAL
CURRENTS. SWELL WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4 TO 6 FT WHILE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14
SECONDS. -SPILDE
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND A BELT OF HIGHER
SW-W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NE CALIFORNIA. GOOD VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW
THESE WINDS TO TRANSPORT DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN W WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A FEW OF THE HIGHER EXPOSED
RAWS MIGHT HIT 40 MPH. THIS, COMBINED WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DOWN AROUND 15% WILL MAKE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MODOC COUNTY FROM
1-7 PM PDT. ELEVATED FIRE RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. PLEASE BE AWARE OF THE FIRE DANGER AND
AVOID CREATING UNNECESSARY SPARKS.
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2026...THE
FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
ORIGINATING FROM A STORM OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN EARLIER THIS WEEK,
THE WEST-NORTHWESTS SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OVER 25 SECONDS. SWELL WILL
THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
AROUND 5 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF
UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM, AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TO
1 AM, THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING AND LATE EVENING HOURS.
IF VISITING THE COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY, STAY VIGILANT FOR
INCOMING WAVES. STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
MAS
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