408
FXUS66 KMFR 100509
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1009 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH FROST IN SOME
VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
* THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
* THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS THE LOW SITS OVERHEAD.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
WE'RE WATCHING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DEFINED CLOUD SHIELD AROUND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OREGON. AS OF WRITING THIS AFD, NORTH BEND IS SEEING SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH 2SM OF VISIBILITY, SO SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AROUND COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. WE'LL SEE
TEMPERATURES TREND LOWER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, ALTHOUGH
THEY'RE STILL RATHER WARM FOR OCTOBER AROUND MEDFORD AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH.
THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AROUND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS IN JACKSON COUNTY. THE NBM HAS BEEN RELENTLESS
WITH PUTTING A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A ~5% CHANCE OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. IT SEEMS THE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ROGUE VALLEY
AND PERHAPS SOME MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE LATER
TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE, THE 5-10% PROBABILITY OF RAIN SEEMS MORE
REALISTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE AIR WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TONIGHT. WE THINK IT WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH MORE LIKELY THAN NOT OVERNIGHT
OVER MANY LOCATIONS. THE NBM HAS THIS STRANGE PEAK IN THE WIND
SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS IN
MEDFORD AROUND MIDNIGHT! HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DOESN'T
REALLY SHOW THAT TREND OF INCREASING WINDS, SO THAT IS SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT. LASTLY, THE EFI DOES HAVE VALUES AROUND 0.8 BETWEEN 0Z
FRIDAY AND 0Z SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD IMPLY SOME STRONGER WINDS
COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL OCTOBER NORM. OVERALL, NO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AS HUMIDITIES ARE MOVING HIGHER OVERNIGHT, JUST PRETTY
INTERESTING TO SEE THAT SURGE OF WINDS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WE'LL SEE THE COOLER AIR SETTLE IN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60'S WITH SOME 50'S SCATTERED
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS IS ABOUT A 25 TO 30 DEGREE DROP
COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN OBSERVING EARLIER THIS WEEK. GIVEN
THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES, WE DECIDED TO GO
WITH A FROST ADVISORY OVER JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WITHIN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAVE
ALREADY SEEN FROST A FEW TIMES THIS YEAR, SO WE KEPT THEM OUT OF
THIS FROST ADVISORY. WE'LL HAVE TO CONSIDER A FREEZE WARNING DOWN
THERE AS MT SHASTA CITY HASN'T FROZEN YET AT THE AIRPORT. ONE OF
THE CO-OP SITES HAVE REPORTED A LOW OF 30 EARLIER IN SEPTEMBER.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE AN EVEN COOLER AIRMASS COMPARED TO
SEPTEMBER WITH SLIGHTLY LONGER NIGHTS.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE AIR WILL
LIKELY BE VERY DRY ALOFT AS A THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON. THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING SOME LIGHTER
EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME VERY DRY AIR BUILDING OFF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND WARMER ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY
DON'T REALLY SPIKE HIGHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVERHEAD.
THE 5% CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE WEEK AND PEAKING BY FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER 80'S. OVERALL, NO MODERATE OR MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
-SMITH
AVIATION...10/06Z TAFS
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UMPQUA BASIN,
GRANTS PASS AREA AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR LOCAL IFR/MVFR ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2026
GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHEST SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST OFFSHORE OF BROOKINGS. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY, BUT STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WEST-NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY ORIGINATING
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC NEAR JAPAN. WHILE THE HIGH ENERGY
SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET, THE ARRIVING SWELL OF 1
FOOT AT 27 SECONDS ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD TO A PEAK AT AROUND 6
FEET AT 20 TO 22 SECONDS LATER SUNDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE
DANGEROUS BAR CONDITIONS, HEAVIER THAN NORMAL SURF, AND ABNORMAL
CURRENTS. SWELL WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4 TO 6 FT WHILE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14
SECONDS. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2026
THE
FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON BEGINS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT. ORIGINATING FROM A STORM OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK, THE WEST-NORTHWESTS SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD OVER 25 SECONDS. SWELL WILL
THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF
UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM, AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TO
1 AM, THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE DURING THE
MORNING AND LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING.
IF VISITING THE COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY, STAY VIGILANT FOR
INCOMING WAVES. STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-
026.
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ080>082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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