498
FXUS66 KMFR 101802
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1101 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
* SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE TODAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND TONIGHT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEAR/
EAST OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS.
* FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS TONIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT AND IT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT WAS "MOSTLY DRY", EXCEPT SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IN COOS COUNTY PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN (ONLY A TRACE AT ROSEBURG AIRPORT).
SILVER BUTTE RAWS MUST HAVE BEEN IN THE PERFECT AREA, COMING IN
WITH 0.44".
FOR TODAY, THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES F LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE EAST
SIDE AND LARGELY 60-70F WEST OF THE CASCADES. CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
BANKED UP AGAINST THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, AND SOME ARE
SPILLING OVER TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN MORE OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS OVER
US (ROGUE VALLEY) AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TO ERODE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CELLULAR LOW-TOPPED CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN
AND TO THE NORTH NEAR FLORENCE/NEWPORT. WHILE MOST AREAS LIKELY
REMAIN DRY, IT'S CONCEIVABLE THERE'S AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL IN SE OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO NE OREGON.
AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM AROUND THE MT. SHASTA REGION OVER TO AROUND THE
WARNER MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING OVER MOST WESTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MANY AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS, SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE UP. IT'S
GETTING LATE IN THE SEASON, SO HARVEST WHAT YOU CAN IF YOU STILL
HAVE THE BACKYARD GARDEN GOING.
ON SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH FROM NE
CALIFORNIA UP INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH, AND THUS, THE DRY SIDE. WE
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER FAR SE
SECTIONS, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. BREEZY N-NE WINDS DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. WINDS DIE OFF SUNDAY EVENING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND
A DRIER AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN
TONIGHT. AS SUCH, WE'VE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE WESTERN
VALLEYS OF NORCAL AS WELL AS JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTIES.
PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPS 32F OR LOWER IN THESE AREAS IS GENERALLY
50-80%. FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN
(PROBABILITY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE <36F FROM ROSEBURG TO
SUTHERLIN IS ABOUT 30-40%, WHILE NEAR CANYONVILLE AND GLENDALE,
ODDS ARE HIGHER, ABOUT 60-80% CHANCE).
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW JUST HANGS OUT MOVING TO AROUND NW NEVADA ON
MONDAY, THEN FINALLY PIVOTING ACROSS NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
UTAH ON TUESDAY. THE COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECIDED WARMING TREND. IT WON'T BE HOT
LIKE LAST WEEK, BUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY THU/FRI,
IT'LL BE WARM FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
80-85F FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
MODELS THEN SHOW A FIZZLING FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE MUCH (IF ANY)
IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER, THOUGH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND. -SPILDE
AVIATION...10/18Z TAFS
AREA TERMINALS LOOK TO BE AT VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME STRATUS LAYERS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL AS IN SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES WHILE TERRAIN-INFLUENCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE OVER
TERRAIN IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS MAY OBSCURE ELEVATED TERRAIN
IN THESE AREAS, BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER MAY
PERIODICALLY FLUCTUATE OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MORE
COVER POSSIBLE OVER MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OVERALL, THE ONLY EXPECTED CHANGES TO TERMINAL FORECASTS
WILL COME FROM CHANGES TO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2026
GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND SEAS WILL
BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS (UP TO
40 KT) ARE POSSIBLE JUST OFFSHORE OF BROOKINGS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND AGAIN SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SEAS COULD APPROACH WARNING LEVELS (10 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE
ARAGO AND BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE ON SUNDAY), BUT ASSOCIATED
WAVE PERIOD SHOULD BE 9-10 SECONDS. WE'LL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR NOW. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY, BUT STEEP
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WEST-NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE HIGH ENERGY
SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET, THE ARRIVING SWELL OF 1
FOOT AT 27 SECONDS TODAY WILL BUILD TO A PEAK AT AROUND 6 FEET AT 20
TO 22 SECONDS LATER SUNDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS BAR
CONDITIONS, HEAVIER THAN NORMAL SURF, AND ABNORMAL CURRENTS. SWELL
WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4
TO 6 FT WHILE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14 SECONDS. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2026
THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TODAY. THE WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL (AROUND 1-2 FEET) WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PERIOD OVER 25 SECONDS. SWELL
WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND WAVE RUN-UPS
OF UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ARE
EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM PDT, AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
TO 1 AM PDT.
IF VISITING THE COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY, STAY VIGILANT FOR INCOMING
WAVES. STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080>082.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ080>082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
MAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page