186
FXUS66 KMFR 102043
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
143 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY.
* FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS, PEAKING AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BEGIN TODAY AREA WIDE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
MEANS HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE EAST SIDE AND LARGELY
60-70F WEST OF THE CASCADES. A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE AREA ON AVERAGE IS SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, IT'S CONCEIVABLE THERE'S
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY, ALMOST FULLY
STALLED, OVER FAR SE OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NE
OREGON. AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT WE CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM AROUND THE MT. SHASTA REGION OVER TO
AROUND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING OVER MOST WESTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MANY AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS, SO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE UP. IT'S
GETTING LATE IN THE SEASON, SO HARVEST WHAT YOU CAN IF YOU STILL
HAVE THE BACKYARD GARDEN GOING.
ON SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH FROM NE
CALIFORNIA UP INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH, AND THUS, THE DRY SIDE. WE
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER FAR SE
SECTIONS, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. BREEZY N-NE WINDS DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. WINDS DIE OFF SUNDAY EVENING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND
A DRIER AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN
TONIGHT. AS SUCH, THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF NORCAL AS WELL AS
JACKSON/JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. FROST IS ALSO INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE
IN PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN, SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW JUST HANGS OUT MOVING TO AROUND NW NEVADA ON
MONDAY, THEN FINALLY PIVOTING ACROSS NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
UTAH ON TUESDAY. THE COOL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECIDED WARMING TREND. IT WON'T BE HOT
LIKE LAST WEEK, BUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY THU/FRI,
IT'LL BE WARM FOR MID-OCTOBER WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
80-85F FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
MODELS THEN SHOW A FIZZLING FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE MUCH (IF ANY)
IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER, THOUGH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION...10/18Z TAFS
AREA TERMINALS LOOK TO BE AT VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME STRATUS LAYERS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS WELL AS IN SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES WHILE TERRAIN-INFLUENCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE OVER
TERRAIN IN DOUGLAS COUNTY. CLOUD COVER MAY PERIODICALLY FLUCTUATE
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MORE COVER POSSIBLE OVER
MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THE
ONLY EXPECTED CHANGES TO TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL COME FROM CHANGES
TO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION. -TAD
MARINE...UPDATED 1230 PM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2026
THE
PASSING COLD FRONT HAS DISRUPTED THE THERMAL TROUGH TODAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH VERY SLIGHTLY AND FOR A BRIEF TIME TODAY
BEFORE THE THERMAL TROUGH RE-STREGNTHENS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP
WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD.
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS (UP TO 40 KT) ARE POSSIBLE JUST
OFFSHORE OF BROOKINGS THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING AND AGAIN SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE MONDAY, BUT STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WEST-NORTHWEST
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE HIGH ENERGY
SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET, THE ARRIVING SWELL OF 1
FOOT AT 27 SECONDS TODAY WILL BUILD TO A PEAK AT AROUND 6 FEET AT 20
TO 22 SECONDS LATER SUNDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS BAR
CONDITIONS, HEAVIER THAN NORMAL SURF, AND ABNORMAL CURRENTS. SWELL
WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4
TO 6 FT WHILE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14 SECONDS. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 1230 PM PDT SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2026
THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TODAY. THE WEST-
NORTHWEST SWELL (AROUND 1-2 FEET) WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PERIOD OVER 25 SECONDS. SWELL
WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND WAVE RUN-UPS
OF UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ARE
EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM PDT, AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
TO 1 AM PDT.
IF VISITING THE COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY, STAY VIGILANT FOR INCOMING
WAVES. STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026.
CA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ080>082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
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