755
FXUS66 KMFR 110957
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
INTO MONDAY.
* FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS, PEAKING AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
LATE IN THE WEEK.
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
* SLIGHT COOLING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
LOW.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHAPE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
COOLED US OFF TO THE TUNE OF 20-30 DEGREES COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. FOR EXAMPLE, THE HIGH IN MEDFORD ON THURSDAY
WAS 93F, BUT ONLY 64F ON SATURDAY. SIMILARLY, IT WAS 86F IN
KLAMATH FALLS ON THURSDAY AND ONLY 56F ON SATURDAY.
WE'LL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERALL, EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR, COLD NIGHTS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY LATE-NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
BREEZY N-NE WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST IN
THE NE-SW ORIENTED VALLEYS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF MORNINGS WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON IN MANY AREAS WEST
OF THE CASCADES. WE HAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UP FOR THAT.
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY EDGE SOUTHWARD INTO SE OREGON
AND NW NEVADA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY. OTHER
THAN A STRAY SHOWER HERE OR THERE OVER THE EAST SIDE, A LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA MID-LATE THIS
WEEK (ESP WED-FRI). THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (ABOUT 5-10F) --
NOT AS WARM AS LAST WEEK, BUT STILL WARM BY MID-OCTOBER STANDARDS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY FRONT/MARINE PUSH ARRIVING
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD BRING SOME COOLING OVER INLAND AREAS.
BUT, AT THIS TIME, OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST INLAND, DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
THE NEXT CHANCE AT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE OUT
AROUND OCT 19TH. -SPILDE
AVIATION...11/12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG COULD RESULT IN LOCAL IFR IN THE COQUILLE
AND LOWER UMPQUA BASINS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY W AND NW OF
ROSEBURG, BUT ALSO FROM AROUND CAMAS VALLEY TO GLENDALE TO AZALEA.
LOCAL CEILINGS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER CHRISTMAS VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE TOO, THOUGH THEY'LL BE MOSTLY VFR.
BROAD N-NE FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CONCERN FOR
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KLMT THIS MORNING. WINDS DID DECOUPLE
FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER BRIEFLY AROUND MIDNIGHT-2 AM, BUT HIGHER
NE WINDS AROUND 1300-1500 FT SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THE 30 KT
DIFFERENCE NEEDED FOR LLWS.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL HAVE BREEZY TO AT TIMES WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. N-NE WINDS (WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30
KT) ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. TONIGHT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY
VFR WEST OF THE CASCADES. -SPILDE
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2026
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
(UP TO 40 KT) ARE POSSIBLE JUST OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY,
BUT CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORT ORFORD.
WEST-NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO A PEAK
TODAY AT AROUND 5-6 FEET AT 19-20 SECONDS. THIS COULD PRODUCE
DANGEROUS BAR CONDITIONS, HEAVIER THAN NORMAL SURF, AND ABNORMAL
CURRENTS. THE SWELL WILL THEN VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, CONTINUING AT 4-5 FT WHILE THE PERIOD LOWERS TO 14
SECONDS. -SPILDE
BEACH HAZARDS...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2026
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT AROUND 5-6 FEET AT 19-20 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND WAVE
RUN-UPS OF UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
TODAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST ARE
EXPECTED ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TO 1 PM PDT, AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
TO 1 AM PDT.
IF VISITING THE COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY, STAY VIGILANT FOR INCOMING
WAVES. STAY FAR AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN. -SPILDE
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080>082.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
MAS
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