156
FNUS76 KMFR 210148
FWSMFR
SPOT FORECAST FOR SNOWMANS UNDERBURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
648 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PDT ON OCTOBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
HIGHER CHANCES ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST, SO OUTFLOW MAY COME
FROM THOSE DIRECTIONS EVEN IF THE SPOT LOCATION SEES NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR WEEKEND ACTIVITY REMAIN BUT ARE
TRENDING DOWN, WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.5 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65 TO 68 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST AT 1 TO 4 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST AT 4 TO 7 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
UP TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AT 6 TO 8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT
7 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.15 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN
DROPPING TO 0 PERCENT BY MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39 TO 42 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST AT 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AT 1 TO 2 MPH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AT 2 TO 4 MPH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AT 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT
2 TO 4 MPH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.5 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54 TO 57 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........74 TO 77 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 1 TO 2 MPH BECOMING WEST AT
2 TO 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 5 MPH BECOMING WEST AT
4 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 3 TO 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
7 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................65 PERCENT.
OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 28 THROUGH TUESDAY NOVEMBER 03
FOR OREGON...INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
FOR NRN CALIF...INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
=
FORECASTER...DALDRUP
REQUESTED BY...HANNE MEYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623916.2/MFR
.DELDT 10/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RAMON.MOTA@USDA.GOV,HANNE.MEYERS@USDA.GOV
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