786
FXUS62 KMHX 171230
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 520 AM SUN...THE FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM
FOR PATCHY LIGHT FROST INLAND AS LOWS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS
DROP INTO THE MID 30S EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK FOR HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH. SEE CF SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NC
TODAY AND TONIGHT CONTINUING THE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THAT BEGAN
YESTERDAY. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO
OUR AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPS UP A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
AS OF 520 AM SUN...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. VERY SHALLOW PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL. LOWS INLAND WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND AROUND
50 IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 0300 SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WED-THURS.
THROUGH MIDWEEK...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
AND SFC HIGH TRAVERSES SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING TUES AND WED,
WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO, INTO THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SMALL
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER, THE GOM WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THIS QUICK
MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM, AND WILL THEREFORE NOT BE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GENERALLY WENT WITH AN NBM BASE FOR POPS
WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GFS BLENDED IN LEADING TO SCHC-CHC OF
SHOWERS OVER LAND FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
LATE WEEK...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED REINFORCING
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH, AND GUSTY WSW WINDS IN IT'S
WAKE ARE EXPECTED AS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEATHER
APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LOW RH'S EXPECTED AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS, MAXTS IN THE UPPER 50S THURS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 520 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, PRODUCING CLEAR
SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. SHALLOW FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH THE SATURATED LAYER
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SHALLOW, THE FOG SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0300 SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS OUTSIDE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BRINGING
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SUBVFR. GUSTY WSWERLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM SUN...CANCELLED THE REMAINING SCA A LITTLE EARLY.
THE OFFSHORE BUOYS INDICATE THAT SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FT
FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NBM AND WAVEWATCH
WAVE MODELS. WE COULD BRIEFLY SEE A FEW 6 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS ARE NOW OBSERVING SEAS BELOW 6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ALLOWING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AND A RESULTING
LESSENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NC WATERS. N WINDS 10-15 KT
THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND W OVERNIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 2-4 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0300 SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST BOATING DAY WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEARBY WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND
SEAS OF 2-4 FT. WINDS BECOME MORE S-SWERLY 10-15 TUES AFTERNOON,
15-20 LATE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS AT A MINIMUM LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY WSWERLY WINDS PLACE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 0330 SUNDAY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES HAVE SINCE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. NC-12 BETWEEN THE FERRY
TERMINAL AND THE PONY PENS ON OCRACOKE REMAINS CLOSED UNTIL
1200EST SUNDAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL OCEAN
OVERWASH AND COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE
(~0800EST). WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND,
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEK. EXPECTING INUNDATION VALUES TO BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
BUT UP TO ONE TO TWO FEET OF INUNDATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE OBX, CRYSTAL COAST AND ADJACENT TRIBUTARIES THIS
MORNING. THE NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORIES ANOTHER 24HR
WILL BE EVALUATED AFTER COLLECTING DATA AND REPORTS FROM THIS
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044-045-
079-080-090-091.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CEB
AVIATION...JME/CEB
MARINE...JME/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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