204
FXUS62 KMHX 180302
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY WITH RIDGING THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. BROUGHT OBX LOWS TONIGHT DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES WITH CALM
WINDS, AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS CWA-WIDE FOR THE RAPID DROP
IN TEMPERATURE AROUND SUNSET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 330 PM SUN...A BEAUTIFUL
FALL DAY TODAY TO END OUR WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS
OVERHEAD.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. HIGH CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AT IT TRACKS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE, HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT WILL BE FELT FROM THIS
HIGH BASED CLOUD DECK. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY I WENT BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS WITH LOWS GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AND LOW 50S ALONG THE OBX. VERY SHALLOW PATCHES OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS OF 330 PM SUN... UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
MONDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO OVERSPREAD
ENC THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MONDAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE OBX TO THE LOW
70S INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 0300 SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WED-THURS.
THROUGH MIDWEEK...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
AND SFC HIGH TRAVERSES SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING TUES AND WED,
WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO, INTO THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SMALL
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER, THE GOM WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THIS QUICK
MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM, AND WILL THEREFORE NOT BE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GENERALLY WENT WITH AN NBM BASE FOR POPS
WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GFS BLENDED IN LEADING TO SCHC-CHC OF
SHOWERS OVER LAND FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
LATE WEEK...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED REINFORCING
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH, AND GUSTY WSW WINDS IN IT'S
WAKE ARE EXPECTED AS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WEATHER
APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LOW RH'S EXPECTED AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS, MAXTS IN THE UPPER 50S THURS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 615 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS ENC THIS
EVENING AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MON AS ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMS IN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE WHICH IS OVER
THE CAROLINAS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART
INTO MONDAY AS WELL. SHALLOW FOG IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING BUT WITH THE SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SHALLOW, THE FOG SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON AVIATION
OPERATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THE SIGNAL FOR FOG IS WEAKER
THAN IT HAS BEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS SO EVEN IF SHALLOW FOG WERE
TO OCCUR IT LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE THAN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND AS A RESULT DON'T HAVE FOG IN THE TAF'S OR
IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0300 SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS OUTSIDE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BRINGING
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SUBVFR. GUSTY WSWERLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BENIGN
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. WINDS HAVE STARTED BACKING TO BECOME SW'RLY 5-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP A TAD THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING 10-15KT,
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL WATERS. MONDAY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO
BECOME W/NW'RLY AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
ONGOING 2 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE PROTECTED
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0300 SUNDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST BOATING DAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES NEARBY WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS
OF 2-4 FT. WINDS BECOME MORE S-SWERLY 10-15 TUES AFTERNOON,
15-20 LATE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS AT A MINIMUM LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY WSWERLY WINDS PLACE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...NC-12 HAS REOPENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OPEN GOING FORWARD. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH NO LONGER EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
INUNDATION FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY'S GOING FORWARD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF/RJ
MARINE...CEB/RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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