325
FXUS62 KMHX 181054
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
554 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING THEN GRADUALLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 550 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NC THROUGH TUE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY OFF OF
THE COAST RESULTING IN A WESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING TODAY. ANY SHALLOW FOG PATCHES THAT ARE OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TODAY. THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE OBX
TO THE LOW 70S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
AS OF 550 AM MON...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING CALM. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT A REAL STRONG SIGNAL
YET IN THE GUIDANCE BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS CHANGE GOING FORWARD.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S OUTER
BANKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY-WEEK
BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WED-THURS. VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND.
INTO MIDWEEK...RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SFC HIGH TRAVERSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION DURING TUES AND WED, WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE
CLIMO, INTO THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SMALL SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GOM WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THIS
QUICK MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM, AND WILL THEREFORE NOT BE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. INTRODUCE ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER MENTION TUES NIGHT WHEN DEEPENING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT
EWARD TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. POPS
INCREASE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS, APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH, INITIAL
AND REINFORCING FRONTS. POPS HIGHEST WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT
DURING FROPA, A PERIOD WHERE HAVE ALSO OPTED TO CONTINUE MENTION
OF SCHC THUNDER WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE.
LATE WEEK...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED REINFORCING
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH BY THUR MORNING, AND GUSTY WSW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEATHER APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LOW RH'S EXPECTED
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS, MAXTS IN THE UPPER 50S
THURS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 AM MON...EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY GROUND FOG. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM IN THE EARLY
EVENING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FOG COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON AVIATION
OPERATIONS AS IT APPEARS IT COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS OUTSIDE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BRINGING NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SUBVFR. GUSTY WSWERLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 550 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS.
WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE W AT 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT LATE TODAY. TONIGHT WINDS VEER TO THE
NW AND REMAIN 5-10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT TODAY THEN WILL
SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST BOATING DAY WITH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRES NEARBY WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS
OF 2-3 FT. WINDS BECOME MORE S-SWERLY 10-15 TUES AFTERNOON,
15-20 LATE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS AT A MINIMUM LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTY WSWERLY WINDS PLACE. CURRENTLY, A LOW END CHANCE FOR
GALES IN PLACE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD IN
RESPONSE TO WINDS, 5-9FT WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING, REMAINING
AT LEAST 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 0330 MONDAY...NC-12 REOPENED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OPEN GOING FORWARD. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH NO LONGER EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH INUNDATION FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES GOING FORWARD.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO SOUNDSIDE FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR NEERN COASTAL ZONES. CURRENT THINKING IS THESE
PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT
IMPACTS TO NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, BUT VULNERABLE
AREAS ON ROANOKE ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME IMPACTS WHICH COULD
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A ADVISORY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CEB
AVIATION...JME/CEB
MARINE...JME/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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