604
FXUS62 KMHX 190018
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING THEN GRADUALLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY...CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL FOG TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING ARE INCREASING, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HWY 70 AS WE WILL BE GETTING A BREAK IN THE HIGH COVERAGE
CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. KEPT FOG MENTIONS AS PATCHY
FOR NOW, BUT WILL REEVALUATE ONCE 0Z GUIDANCE COMES IN FOR A
POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 215 PM MON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGING
ALOFT. SCT- BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER TOP THE RIDGE WHILE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
WINDS TO GO CALM, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM MON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF THE
SE COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DRY, PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL SW WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO, WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND LOW 70S
INLAND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY-WEEK
BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WED-THURS. VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND.
INTO MIDWEEK...RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SFC HIGH TRAVERSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH WED, WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO,
INTO THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A SMALL SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE GOM WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THIS QUICK MOVING LOW
AMPLITUDE SYSTEM, AND WILL THEREFORE NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. INTRODUCE ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER MENTION TUES
NIGHT WHEN DEEPENING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT EWARD TOWARD AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. POPS INCREASE FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH, INITIAL AND REINFORCING
FRONTS. POPS HIGHEST WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT DURING FROPA, A
PERIOD WHERE HAVE ALSO OPTED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SCHC THUNDER
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE.
LATE WEEK...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED REINFORCING
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH BY THUR MORNING, AND GUSTY WSW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEATHER APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LOW RH'S EXPECTED
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS, MAXTS IN THE UPPER 50S
THURS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND NO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
AS WE GET PAST MIDNIGHT HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF LESSENING HIGH
CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE TREND TOWARDS LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INCREASES THE
CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL FOG AFTER 6Z. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR
OAJ TO BE HIT THE HARDEST, TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR/VLIFR.
EWN AND ISO COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THE FURTHER NORTH
YOU GO. PGV WAS MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH CROSSOVER TEMPS TONIGHT. THIS HAS PREVENTED ME FROM
DROPPING PGV TO IFR, INSTEAD LEANING MORE TOWARDS MVFR FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. THIS FOG COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON AVIATION
OPERATIONS AS IT APPEARS IT COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS RETURN AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FILL IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS OUTSIDE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BRINGING NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SUBVFR. GUSTY WSWERLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...IF FOG FORECAST PANS OUT, WE COULD SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG
THE INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW
W-NW WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS. W-NW 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE
S-SW BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT TONIGHT AND
TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS BECOME 15-20 KT LATE WED AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG SCA CONDITIONS AT A
MINIMUM LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WSWERLY WINDS PLACE.
CURRENTLY, A LOW END CHANCE FOR GALES IN PLACE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO WINDS, 5-9FT WED NIGHT
INTO THURS MORNING, REMAINING AT LEAST 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEK, THOUGH NO LONGER EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH INUNDATION
FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES GOING FORWARD.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR NEERN COASTAL ZONES. CURRENT THINKING IS THESE
PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT
IMPACTS TO NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, BUT VULNERABLE
AREAS ON ROANOKE ISLAND COULD SEE SOME IMPACTS WHICH COULD
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A ADVISORY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RJ
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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