740
FXUS62 KMHX 190323
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING THEN GRADUALLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL FOG TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HWY
264 AS WE WILL BE GETTING A BREAK IN THE HIGH COVERAGE CIRRUS
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. UPGRADED SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
AREAS FOG WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THIS
UPGRADED REGION FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 215 PM MON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF THE SE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGING
ALOFT. SCT- BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER TOP THE RIDGE WHILE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
WINDS TO GO CALM, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM MON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF THE
SE COAST WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DRY, PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL SW WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO, WITH HIGHS MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND LOW 70S
INLAND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY-WEEK
BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WED-THURS. VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND.
INTO MIDWEEK...RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SFC HIGH TRAVERSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH WED, WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO,
INTO THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A SMALL SHOWER THREAT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE GOM WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THIS QUICK MOVING LOW
AMPLITUDE SYSTEM, AND WILL THEREFORE NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. INTRODUCE ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER MENTION TUES
NIGHT WHEN DEEPENING UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT EWARD TOWARD AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. POPS INCREASE FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH, INITIAL AND REINFORCING
FRONTS. POPS HIGHEST WED EVENING INTO WED NIGHT DURING FROPA, A
PERIOD WHERE HAVE ALSO OPTED TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SCHC THUNDER
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE.
LATE WEEK...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED REINFORCING
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH BY THUR MORNING, AND GUSTY WSW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AS TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WEATHER APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LOW RH'S EXPECTED
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS, MAXTS IN THE UPPER 50S
THURS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED WORSENING FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, INCLUDING OAJ. COMBINATION OF
LESSENING HIGH CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. THE TREND TOWARDS
LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INCREASES THE CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL FOG
SPREADING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION AFTER 6Z. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR OAJ TO CONTINUE BEING HIT THE HARDEST, TO
IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR/VLIFR. EWN AND ISO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AFTER 8Z, BUT THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. PGV WAS MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH CROSSOVER TEMPS TONIGHT. THIS, IN
ADDITION TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING A BIT LONGER TO THE NORTH, HAS
PREVENTED ME FROM DROPPING PGV TO IFR, INSTEAD LEANING MORE
TOWARDS MVFR FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THIS FOG COULD HAVE IMPACTS
ON AVIATION OPERATIONS AS IT APPEARS IT COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILL IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS OUTSIDE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BRINGING NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SUBVFR. GUSTY WSWERLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...WATER TEMPS BEING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN AIR TEMPS SHOULD HELP PREVENT RADIATIONAL FOG
IMPACTING OUR MARINE ZONES. WHILE MARINE FOG IS UNLIKELY, IT IS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW
W-NW WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS. W-NW 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE
S-SW BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT TONIGHT AND
TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0300 MONDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS BECOME 15-20 KT LATE WED AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG SCA CONDITIONS AT A
MINIMUM LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WSWERLY WINDS PLACE.
CURRENTLY, A LOW END CHANCE FOR GALES IN PLACE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS MORNING. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO WINDS, 5-9FT WED NIGHT
INTO THURS MORNING, REMAINING AT LEAST 4-6FT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEK, THOUGH NO LONGER EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH INUNDATION
FOR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES GOING FORWARD.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR NEERN COASTAL ZONES. CURRENT THINKING IS THESE
PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT
IMPACTS TO NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, BUT VULNERABLE
AREAS ON ROANOKE ISLAND COULD SEE SOME IMPACTS WHICH COULD
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A ADVISORY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RJ
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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