707
FXUS62 KMHX 190927
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
427 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING FRONT END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY...SFC HIGH OVER ECONUS WITH STRONGER HIGH CENTERED
OFFSHORE SECONUS AND A WEAKENING E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT TO THE
N WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THE FRONT TO THE N MAY SINK TOWARD THE FA
THIS MORNING, BUT IT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE N AND THEN
LIFT BACK NWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT HAS RESULTED
IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES. OBS WILL CONTINUALLY BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF
ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG LINGERS AFTER SUNRISE FOR
AN HR OR TWO BEFORE BURNING OFF. ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY, PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH TO THE
SE CONTINUES PUSHING FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WEAK WAA REGIME IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS
MID/UPPER 60S BEACHES AND LOW 70S INLAND. SELECT HIRES GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING
TO THE W, SPARKING SOME WEAK SHOWERS MOVING W TO E ACROSS SERN
REACHES OF THE FA. HAVE BLENDED SOME OF THESE MODELS INTO THE
POP GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL,
BUT HAVE CAPPED BELOW SCHC OVER LAND AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW ON THE
E SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SHOULD THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE EWARD QUICKER THAN
FORECAST, THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ERODE FASTER AND OPEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR SWERN ZONES AND SERN
BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY...THIS EVENING, PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE W WITH DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, PUSHING
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE. STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS, REDUCTION OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, ADDED MOISTURE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN LEADS TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES FROM
W TO E STARTING AFTER SUNSET AND OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FA
OVERNIGHT. QPF LOOKS MEAGER AT BEST, LESS THAN A 0.25IN.
PERSISTENT LIGHT WAA OUT OF SW AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LEADS TO A MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, MINTS UPPER 50S
MOST, LOW 60S SERN BEACHES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL
SEASON THIS WEEK (FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE)
- MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEK,
WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
EACH WITH A RENEWED UPTICK IN WINDS, AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON FOR ENC THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
EITHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.
WEDNESDAY: WEAK WAA WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOCUSED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON,
A LOW-MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. OF NOTE, A PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK
INSTABILITY (250-500J/KG MLCAPE). THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH MID-
LEVEL DRYING/WARMING, THOUGH, WHICH SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS DEEPER
CONVECTION, KEEPING THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW. I CONTINUED WITH
A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOW FOR NOW. ADDITIONALLY, THIS ALSO SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SENDING TEMPS
CRASHING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, USHERING IN A RENEWED ROUND OF CAA. ONE FINAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. EACH
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND WITH EACH FRONT.
FOR NOW, THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 45 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
FRONT APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE). WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS THAT THIS
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON FOR
ENC. THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THROUGH THE 50S,
AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND AND 40S AT THE BEACHES. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS MODEST WINDS AT NIGHT, WHICH MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING
TEMP FORECAST. SHELTERED AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOWS FALL NEAR
FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A FEW UPPER 20S NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY. ELSEWHERE, MODEST WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID-30S INLAND. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS, THE
WIND MAY HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS FROM
OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED AREAS. STAY TUNED...
SUNDAY - TUESDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER SOME ON THE GENERAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEK OF
THANKSGIVING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT VS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE PRECIP AND
TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS, BUT FOR NOW, THERE
APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY SOLID SIGNAL IN DETERMINISTIC AND CLIMO
GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS WE
MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS
WELL.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 0030 TUESDAY...SUBVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO FOG. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR OAJ TO CONTINUE BEING
HIT THE HARDEST, TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR/VLIFR. EWN AND ISO
WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AFTER 8Z, BUT THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE FURTHER N. PGV WAS MUCH DRIER EARLIER TODAY,
AND WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH CROSSOVER TEMPS TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
KNOWING HOW SENSITIVE THE VIS SENSOR IS THERE, HAVE OPTED TO GO
PESSIMISTIC AND SHOW IFR FOR PGV AS WELL. SHOW PREVAILING IFR
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH TEMPO GROUPS SHOWING MOST PESSIMISTIC VIS
FORECAST THAT OBS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BOUNCE TO AND FROM
INCLUDING LIFR, VLIFR, AND SOME VIS THAT ARE BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS (EWN AND OAJ). VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS RETURN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT SSWERLY WINDS AOB
7KT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
- MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS TO BRING GUSTY WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK
- SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING
SCT SHRA AND LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THIS RISK
APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE). A NOTABLE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A RENEWED ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. ONE FINAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY, AND ALSO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONTS, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOW.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY...SFC HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SECONUS COAST AND
RIDGE ALOFT KEEP EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. LATEST
OBS SHOW W-NW WINDS 5KT OR LESS AND SEAS 1-2FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
MORE S-SW BY THIS AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING TO 10-15KT THIS
EVENING, VEERING TO BECOME MORE WERLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREA WATERS LATE
WED-THURS. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO REACH 2-3FT WITH 4FT OVER
OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENC WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF 20-30KT W TO NW WINDS.
ALONG, AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND, THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD OF 30-35KT WINDS. GIVEN THE SHORTER DURATION OF
THE 35KT WINDS, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PEAK OF THE WINDS, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GALE WATCHES WERE
CONSIDERED, BUT FOR THE REASONS ABOVE, WE HAVE OPTED TO FOREGO GALE
HEADLINES FOR NOW. IF GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGER, OR IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES, GALE HEADLINES MAY STILL BE NEEDED. ANOTHER COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH, ONE ON THURSDAY, AND THE
OTHER ON FRIDAY. EACH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RENEWED RISK OF 25-
30KT WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. THIS SUPPORTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SCA IMPACTS, WITH MARGINAL GALES ALSO POSSIBLE. SEAS OF 2-3 FT ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 0300 TUESDAY...WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL LINGER TODAY, THOUGH NO LONGER
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH INUNDATION FOR COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR NEERN COASTAL ZONES. CURRENT THINKING IS THESE
PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT
IMPACTS TO NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, BUT VULNERABLE
AREAS ON ROANOKE ISLAND COULD SEE SOME IMPACTS WHICH COULD
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A ADVISORY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ131-135>137-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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