236
FXUS62 KMHX 191918
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING FRONT END OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM TUE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
OFF THE SE COAST, WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE UPPER MID-WEST AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE SE
US. BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SC DOWN THROUGH
THE FL PANHANDLE. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT, THOUGH WILL INITIALLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME OVERCOMING DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND TOWARDS SUNRISE WED MORNING WITH STRENGTHENING WAA. QPF AMTS
STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING SSW
FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 220 PM TUE...WEAK WAA WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOCUSED THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
LOW- MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK
INSTABILITY (250-500J/KG MLCAPE). THIS WILL OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH
MID-LEVEL DRYING/WARMING, THOUGH, WHICH SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS
DEEPER CONVECTION, KEEPING THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL
SEASON THIS WEEK (FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS POSSIBLE)
- MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEK,
WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
EACH WITH A RENEWED UPTICK IN WINDS, AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON FOR ENC THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT AWAY
FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
EITHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SENDING TEMPS
CRASHING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, USHERING IN A RENEWED ROUND OF CAA. ONE FINAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. EACH
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND WITH EACH FRONT.
FOR NOW, THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING 45 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
FRONT APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE). WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS THAT THIS
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON FOR
ENC. THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THROUGH THE 50S,
AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND AND 40S AT THE BEACHES. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS MODEST WINDS AT NIGHT, WHICH MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING
TEMP FORECAST. SHELTERED AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOWS FALL NEAR
FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A FEW UPPER 20S NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY. ELSEWHERE, MODEST WINDS SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID-30S INLAND. DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS, THE
WIND MAY HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS FROM
OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED AREAS. STAY TUNED...
SUNDAY - TUESDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER SOME ON THE GENERAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEK OF
THANKSGIVING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT VS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE PRECIP AND
TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS, BUT FOR NOW, THERE
APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY SOLID SIGNAL IN DETERMINISTIC AND CLIMO
GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS WE
MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS
WELL.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED,
PUSHING THROUGH WED NIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS GRAD
LOWER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.
SUB-VFR CIGS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR, LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST WED MORNING, WITH
BEST CHANCES AT PGV AND ISO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...
- MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS TO BRING GUSTY WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK
- SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND LOW CIGS WEDNESDAY
EVENING
SCT SHRA AND LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THIS
RISK APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE). A NOTABLE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RENEWED ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. ONE FINAL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, AND ALSO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY'S COLD FRONTS, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE RISK OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LOW.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW WSW-NW WINDS 5-10 KT AND
SEAS 1-3 FT. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SE COAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
S-SW 5-15 KT TONIGHT AND WED, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENC WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF 20-30KT W TO NW WINDS.
ALONG, AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND, THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD OF 30-35KT WINDS. GIVEN THE SHORTER DURATION OF
THE 35KT WINDS, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PEAK OF THE WINDS, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GALE WATCHES WERE
CONSIDERED, BUT FOR THE REASONS ABOVE, WE HAVE OPTED TO FOREGO GALE
HEADLINES FOR NOW. IF GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGER, OR IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES, GALE HEADLINES MAY STILL BE NEEDED. ANOTHER COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH, ONE ON THURSDAY, AND THE
OTHER ON FRIDAY. EACH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RENEWED RISK OF 25-
30KT WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. THIS SUPPORTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SCA IMPACTS, WITH MARGINAL GALES ALSO POSSIBLE. SEAS OF 2-3 FT ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 220 PM TUE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-35% INLAND
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 220 PM TUE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO MINOR
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE OUTER BANKS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THESE PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS, BUT MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND
ROANOKE ISLAND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ131-135>137-150-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/CQD
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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