743
FXUS62 KMHX 200825
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. AT THE SFC, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS,
EVENTUALLY CRESTING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK
WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE (<0.50").
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT, A STRONG CAP, AND WEAK FORCING.
TEMP-WISE, WE'RE STARTING OFF THE DAY ON THE MILD SIDE AND,
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDCOVER EXPECTED, HIGHS SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
OF NOTE, THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TONIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF BURST OF GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING, SENDING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF ENC IN
THE 9PM-11PM TIMEFRAME. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12AM-2AM TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG CAA SHOULD SUPPORT A QUICK
BURST OF 25-35 MPH WINDS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE
REASONABLE UPPER END OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THAT SAID, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
LOOKING THROUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE PROBABILITY OF 45+ MPH
WIND GUSTS IS ONLY ABOUT 10-20%.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TUMBLE, INITIALLY
FALLING FROM THE 60S INTO THE 50S. CONTINUED CAA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE OBX (WHICH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 50S). THIS WILL
BE A GOOD 10- 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT
THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
- MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THURSDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, USHERING IN A
RENEWED ROUND OF CAA. ONE FINAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. EACH FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE STILL
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND WITH EACH FRONT. FOR NOW, THE
PROBABILITY OF REACHING 45 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY FRONT
APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE). WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS THAT THIS
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
FOR ENC. THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THROUGH
THE 50S, AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND AND 40S AT THE
BEACHES. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MODEST WINDS AT NIGHT, WHICH MAKES
FOR A CHALLENGING TEMP FORECAST. SHELTERED AREAS ARE LIKELY TO
SEE LOWS FALL NEAR FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH A FEW UPPER
20S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. ELSEWHERE, MODEST WINDS
SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID-30S INLAND.
DESPITE THE COLD AIRMASS, THE WIND MAY HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS FROM OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED AREAS.
STAY TUNED...
SUNDAY - TUESDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER SOME ON THE
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEK OF THANKSGIVING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE TIED TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT VS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
NOTABLE PRECIP AND TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS,
BUT FOR NOW, THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY SOLID SIGNAL IN
DETERMINISTIC AND CLIMO GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW, WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS WELL.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHRA, AND ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING
- INCREASED RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, WITH A SOLID SIGNAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME,
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SCOURING OUT THE LOW CIGS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC IN THE 02Z-07Z TIMEFRAME
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCT SHRA WILL BE A RISK THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A FEW TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THIS RISK
APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE), AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSRA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO THE LOW RISK. ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED, PEAKING IN THE
25-30KT RANGE FOR ABOUT A 1-2 HR PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...
- MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS TO BRING GUSTY WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A RENEWED ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. ONE FINAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, AND ALSO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S
COLD FRONTS, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE RISK OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LOW.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW WSW-NW WINDS 5-10 KT AND
SEAS 1-3 FT. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF THE SE COAST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
S-SW 5-15 KT TONIGHT AND WED, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3 FT.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENC WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF 20-30KT W TO NW WINDS.
ALONG, AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND, THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD OF 30-35KT WINDS. GIVEN THE SHORTER DURATION OF
THE 35KT WINDS, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PEAK OF THE WINDS, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A STRONGLY-WORDED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GALE WATCHES WERE
CONSIDERED, BUT FOR THE REASONS ABOVE, WE HAVE OPTED TO FOREGO GALE
HEADLINES FOR NOW. IF GUIDANCE TRENDS STRONGER, OR IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES, GALE HEADLINES MAY STILL BE NEEDED. ANOTHER COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH, ONE ON THURSDAY, AND THE
OTHER ON FRIDAY. EACH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RENEWED RISK OF 25-
30KT WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. THIS SUPPORTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SCA IMPACTS, WITH MARGINAL GALES ALSO POSSIBLE. SEAS OF 2-3 FT ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 220 PM TUE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-35% INLAND
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 220 PM TUE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO MINOR
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE OUTER BANKS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THESE PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS, BUT MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND
ROANOKE ISLAND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ131-135-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/CQD
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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