782
FXUS62 KMHX 201155
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
655 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
- MILD TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE
MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. AT THE SFC, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS,
EVENTUALLY CRESTING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK
WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE (<0.50").
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW THROUGH THE DAY DUE
TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT, A STRONG CAP, AND WEAK FORCING.
TEMP-WISE, WE'RE STARTING OFF THE DAY ON THE MILD SIDE AND,
DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDCOVER EXPECTED, HIGHS SHOULD STILL
MANAGE TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S,
THANKS TO THE CONTINUED, PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. OF NOTE,
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TONIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF BURST OF GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING, SENDING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF ENC IN
THE 9PM-11PM TIMEFRAME. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFFSHORE BY 12AM-2AM TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG CAA SHOULD SUPPORT A QUICK
BURST OF 25-35 MPH WINDS. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE
REASONABLE UPPER END OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THAT SAID, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
LOOKING THROUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE PROBABILITY OF 45+ MPH
WIND GUSTS IS ONLY ABOUT 10-20%.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TUMBLE, INITIALLY
FALLING FROM THE 60S INTO THE 50S. CONTINUED CAA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL THEN ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE OBX (WHICH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 50S). THIS WILL
BE A GOOD 10- 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT
THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3:20 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH BEHIND
TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THURSDAY'S HIGHS
BEING 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. IT WILL BE THE CHILLIEST
DAY WE'VE HAD SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 20 MPH. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ITS CAA WILL SEND LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS,
BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME SHELTERED AREAS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY WILL FEEL VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 50S AND BREEZY WINDS
WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND EXTEND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHRA, AND ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING
- INCREASED RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, WITH A SOLID SIGNAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME,
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SCOURING OUT THE LOW CIGS. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC IN THE 02Z-07Z TIMEFRAME
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCT SHRA WITH REDUCED VIS WILL BE
A RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
THIS RISK APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE), AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO THE LOW RISK. ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED, PEAKING
IN THE 25-30KT RANGE FOR ABOUT A 1-2 HR PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
5-10 KT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE
AREA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...
- SUDDEN WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
- DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
SEAS OF 2-3 FT. IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BEST BOATING CONDITIONS OF THE
WEEK. LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS AREA WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.
THE IMPACT TO BOATERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST, AND INCREASE TO 20-30KT. FOR ABOUT A 1-2 HR
PERIOD ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
BURST OF 30-35KT WIND GUSTS. AFTERWARDS, WINDS WILL FALL BACK TO
15-25KT. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT DURATION OF THE 30-35KT WIND
POTENTIAL, WE'LL CONTINUE TO HOLD WITH A STRONGLY WORDED SCA FOR
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...TONIGHT'S POTENT COLD FRONT AND THE
ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERATE
UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (6-7 FT) AND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (6-7 FT) WITH A SLIGHT LULL BETWEEN THESE
TIMES.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL START WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT. A SLIGHT LULL IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND RETURN TO THE SAME
STRENGTH. WINDS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 25-30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 35 KT. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A STRONGLY WORDED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THIS TIME, BUT A GALE WATCH
WILL BE KEPT IN MIND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ALL
ZONES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-35% INLAND
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE OUTER BANKS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THESE PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS, BUT MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND
ROANOKE ISLAND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ131-135-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/CQD/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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