952
FXUS62 KMHX 202000
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM WED...FIRST AREA OF RAIN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING
THROUGH COASTAL ENC AND WILL BE OFFSHORE SHORTLY. THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL BLAST THROUGH LOUDLY
TONIGHT, AS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT BUT STRONG BURST
OF GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY, AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NC MTNS EARLY THIS
EVENING, AND THEN QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH ENC THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
VERY GUSTY WINDS, AND HAVE INC WINDS AS A RESULT. THINK THAT
MOST PLACES EVEN INLAND WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH, AND ON THE
COAST 35-45 MPH AS IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON THE
HOURLY HRRR FOR THE FROPA AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND TEMPS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND LAST A HALF HOUR OR SO AT MOST BUT
THE TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY IN ITS WAKE, GOING FROM THE 60S,
THEN QUICKLY INTO THE 50S AND 40S FOR THEIR EVENTUAL LOWS BY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 PM WED...HIGH TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL AND EVEN
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CLIMO, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR MOST. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WRLY WINDS OF
10-15 GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3:20 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS CAA WILL SEND LOWS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
SHELTERED AREAS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY WILL FEEL VERY
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 50S AND
BREEZY WINDS WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND EXTEND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHRA, THIS EVENING
- INCREASED RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING
IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT PGV AND ISO WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
HEAVIEST OF RAIN MOVES EAST. STILL, MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z,
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NW AND GUST TO AS
HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONT, AND HAVE OPTED TO BRING IN
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A FEW TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
THIS RISK APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE), AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO THE LOW RISK. BEHIND THE
FRONT, CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME VFR WHILE WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY 12Z. SOME INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS
LATER THURSDAY BUT ONLY 20KT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
5-10 KT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE
AREA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...S TO SW WINDS OF 10-15KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL
BLAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND SWICH WILL BE VERY DRAMATIC, AND
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW WITH A 35-40 KT GUST(S) AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. BECAUSE THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE
FROPA, WILL NOT ISSUE A GALE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE VERY BRIEF
NATURE OF THE WINDS LASTING LESS THAN AN HOUR, BUT INSTEAD
HANDLE WITH MWS'S AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS, WHICH WILL BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCA'S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
AND INLAND RIVERS. HAVE ENDED THE NEUSE/PAMLICO/BAY RIVERS A BIT
EARLIER, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REISSUE THESE AS
WINDS COME BACK UP LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE THU WITH
REINFORCING FROPA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL GENERATE UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (6-7 FT) AND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (6-7 FT) WITH A SLIGHT LULL BETWEEN THESE
TIMES.
A SLIGHT LULL IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND RETURN TO THE SAME STRENGTH.
WINDS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 25-30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A STRONGLY WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THIS TIME, BUT A GALE WATCH WILL BE KEPT
IN MIND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ALL
ZONES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-35% INLAND
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE OUTER BANKS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THESE PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS, BUT MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND
ROANOKE ISLAND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ131-135-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...MRD/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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