872
FXUS62 KMHX 210302
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 10 PM WED...COLD FRONT IS NOW RACING TOWARDS ENC THIS
EVENING WITH THIS FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NE TO SW
ACROSS THE TRIAD VICINITY AND CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH RALEIGH
AS OF THIS UPDATE. HAVE SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE AS
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NC. GIVEN THE
FRONTS CURRENT SPEED, CAN EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO REACH THE
WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN
NEARING THE COAST CLOSER TO THE MIDNIGHT TO 1AM TIMEFRAME BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. EXPECTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD 30-40
MPH NW'RLY WIND GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND OBX.
ONCE THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WINDS WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS WELL WITH GUSTS FALLING CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH
ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE
OF THIS, CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HOLD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 1-2
AM ACROSS ENC OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
PREV DISC...ATTENTION TURNS TO STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL
BLAST THROUGH LOUDLY TONIGHT, AS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHORT BUT STRONG BURST OF GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY, AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NC
MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THEN QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH ENC THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE VERY GUSTY WINDS, AND HAVE INC WINDS AS A
RESULT. THINK THAT MOST PLACES EVEN INLAND WILL GUST TO 30-40
MPH, AND ON THE COAST 35-45 MPH AS IT PASSES THROUGH. HAVE
RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HOURLY HRRR FOR THE FROPA AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS AND TEMPS. THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND LAST A HALF
HOUR OR SO AT MOST BUT THE TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY IN ITS WAKE,
GOING FROM THE 60S, THEN QUICKLY INTO THE 50S AND 40S FOR THEIR
EVENTUAL LOWS BY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 PM WED...HIGH TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL AND EVEN
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CLIMO, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR MOST. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WRLY WINDS OF 10-15
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3:20 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS CAA WILL SEND LOWS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
SHELTERED AREAS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY WILL FEEL VERY
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 50S AND
BREEZY WINDS WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND EXTEND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WEDNESDAY...
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHRA, AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO ENC THIS EVENING
A WIDE RANGE OF VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVER ENC
THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING FRONT. CURRENTLY
OAJ/EWN ARE VFR WITH ISO AT LIFR CONDITIONS AND PGV AT MVFR
CONDITIONS. GENERAL TREND REMAINS THE SAME WITH ANY LEFTOVER
VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE REGION
JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH PGV/ISO MAINTAINING
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL THEN BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT. FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 02-04Z TONIGHT
AND FIRST IMPACT PGV/ISO BETWEEN 03-04Z FOLLOWED BY EWN/OAJ
BETWEEN 04-05Z BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY 06Z. AS THE
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SW TO
NW AND GUST TO AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING OVER THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THIS SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES MAINLY AT ISO/EWN
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THESE TAF SITES WITH
A STRONG NW'RLY WIND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONT, AND HAVE OPTED TO BRING IN TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A FEW TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
BUT THIS RISK APPEARS LOW (<20% CHANCE), AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO
KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO THE LOW RISK. BEHIND
THE FRONT, CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME VFR WHILE WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY 12Z. SOME INCREASE IN W'RLY
WIND GUSTS THURSDAY TO 20KT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
5-10 KT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE
AREA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...S TO SW WINDS OF 10-15KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL
BLAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND SWITCH WILL BE VERY DRAMATIC, AND
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW WITH A 35-40 KT GUST(S) AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. BECAUSE THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE
FROPA, WILL NOT ISSUE A GALE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE VERY BRIEF
NATURE OF THE WINDS LASTING LESS THAN AN HOUR, BUT INSTEAD
HANDLE WITH MWS'S AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS, WHICH WILL BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCA'S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
AND INLAND RIVERS. HAVE ENDED THE NEUSE/PAMLICO/BAY RIVERS A BIT
EARLIER, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REISSUE THESE AS
WINDS COME BACK UP LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE THU WITH
REINFORCING FROPA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL GENERATE UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (6-7 FT) AND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (6-7 FT) WITH A SLIGHT LULL BETWEEN THESE
TIMES.
A SLIGHT LULL IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND RETURN TO THE SAME STRENGTH.
WINDS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 25-30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A STRONGLY WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THIS TIME, BUT A GALE WATCH WILL BE KEPT
IN MIND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ALL
ZONES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-35% INLAND
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE OUTER BANKS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THESE PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS, BUT MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND
ROANOKE ISLAND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ131-135-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...RCF/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page