597
FXUS62 KMHX 210554
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1254 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
YET ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 12:30 AM THURSDAY...A POTENT COLD FRONT IS RACING ACROSS
ENC AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NE TO SW JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY
17. GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
ALONG THE OBX. WINDS WILL RELAX BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FRONT IS OFFSHORE (1-2 AM). A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S
BUT WILL CRATER TO THE 40S AND 50S BY EARLY MORNING AS WE SETTLE
INTO THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/..
AS OF 3 PM WED...HIGH TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL AND EVEN
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN CLIMO, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR MOST. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH WRLY WINDS OF 10-15
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3:20 AM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS CAA WILL SEND LOWS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS, BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
SHELTERED AREAS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY WILL FEEL VERY
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 50S AND
BREEZY WINDS WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND EXTEND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AND WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12:45 AM THURSDAY...A POTENT COLD FRONT IS RACING ACROSS
ENC AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NE TO SW JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY
17. IT IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND A WIDE RANGE OF
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE FRONT PASSES, THERE WILL BE A
SHARP SHIFT IN WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT (HIGHER ALONG THE
COAST). SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALL TAF SITES
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WNW WINDS
COULD GUST TO 20 KT THROUGH TODAY BUT WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
5-10 KT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO THE
AREA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...S TO SW WINDS OF 10-15KT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL
BLAST THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE WIND SWITCH WILL BE VERY DRAMATIC, AND
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW WITH A 35-40 KT GUST(S) AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. BECAUSE THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE
FROPA, WILL NOT ISSUE A GALE WARNING BECAUSE OF THE VERY BRIEF
NATURE OF THE WINDS LASTING LESS THAN AN HOUR, BUT INSTEAD
HANDLE WITH MWS'S AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS, WHICH WILL BE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCA'S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
AND INLAND RIVERS. HAVE ENDED THE NEUSE/PAMLICO/BAY RIVERS A BIT
EARLIER, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REISSUE THESE AS
WINDS COME BACK UP LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE THU WITH
REINFORCING FROPA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL GENERATE UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (6-7 FT) AND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (6-7 FT) WITH A SLIGHT LULL BETWEEN THESE
TIMES.
A SLIGHT LULL IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND RETURN TO THE SAME STRENGTH.
WINDS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 25-30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A STRONGLY WORDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS AT THIS TIME, BUT A GALE WATCH WILL BE KEPT
IN MIND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ALL
ZONES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO 30-35% INLAND
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-25KT WERLY
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE OUTER BANKS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THESE PERSISTENT WERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS, BUT MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUNDSIDE NOBX, HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS, AND
ROANOKE ISLAND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ131-135-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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