438
FXUS62 KMHX 211416
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
916 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A POTENT COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 915 AM THURSDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NOW
THAT THE INITIAL STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
WE'RE NOW IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH CHILLY TEMPS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A SECONDARY
REINFORCING FRONT PASSES LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND MINIMUM RHS AROUND 30-35% FOR INLAND AREAS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW).
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
AS OF 915 AM THURSDAY...
- REGARDING THE LOW TEMP/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT
A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARTIN, PITT, GREENE,
LENOIR, DUPLIN, AND INLAND ONSLOW COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AND ARE VERY LOW, CURRENTLY INTO THE
LOWER 30S. IF WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE, THEN IT WOULD BE A SLAM
DUNK THAT LOW TEMPS WOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DUE TO
STRONG CAA WHICH WOULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
IN THIS SCENARIO LOW TEMPS IN MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT 33-35 DEGREES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TEMPS AOB FREEZING IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THUS WE WILL
NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE NEW 12Z
GUIDANCE SPECIFICALLY ON WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WELL
INLAND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
- BREEZY AND COLD FRIDAY
- TRENDING WARMER LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
A LOWER CONFIDENCE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEK
OF THANKSGIVING. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER QUITE
A BIT, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS A DAY OR SO EITHER SIDE OF THANKSGIVING.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY: YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH FOR MOST OF ENC, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
THE OBX. INCREASED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL NOT ONLY
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, BUT ALSO COLDER TEMPS. AFTER A CHILLY START TO
THE DAY, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S. BY
SATURDAY, THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
TOP OUT ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
BENEATH THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PLUS MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY. HOWEVER, RECENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CHANCE IS <10%, SO WE'LL KEEP A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT ON
SATURDAY, FURTHER LOWERING THE RISK OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH OVER FLORIDA, ALLOWING A WEST OR SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY TOPPING OUT NEAR 70
ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER AS WELL.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: FROM A 50,000 FT VIEW, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS FLOW,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST, AND HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH
THE WEEK. ONE CAMP OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL DAMPEN WITH
TIME, LEADING TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN THE OTHER CAMP, TUESDAY'S FRONT STALLS, WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. THAT SECOND
CAMP WOULD LEAD TO A MORE EVENTFUL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD
COMPARED TO THE FIRST CAMP. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS
EVENTFUL SCENARIO.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 6:15 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE ARE NOW IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS THAT INITIATED
THE ONGOING GUSTY NW WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PINCHED, SO
THESE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
REINFORCING FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THIS EVENING'S FROPA, WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
- GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
- SUB VFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A
RENEWED SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME,
GUSTS OF 20-35KT ARE EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY, WITH A FEW SHRA NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION. VFR CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 915 AM THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND AS A
REINFORCING FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING, GUSTS WILL
BRIEFLY JUMP TO 30-35 KT. OVERNIGHT, THE GUSTS WILL DROP BACK TO
25-30 KT. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 4-6 FT TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE INLAND RIVERS THIS MORNING,
BUT UNFAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINING RIVERS, SOUNDS, AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
- GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ENC WATERS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL, WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
ENC WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST. AN EXPANSION OF THE
WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF THE CURRENT SIGNAL HOLDS. WINDS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO LAY DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE BUILDING WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH ELEVATED SEAS LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, SEAS WILL LAY DOWN TO 2-3 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 4 AM THURSDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY. INLAND MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 30-35% AND
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...
COASTAL GAUGES SHOWED A BUMP UP IN SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. WATER
LEVELS HAVE SINCE FALLEN BACK DOWN SOME, BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SURGES OF WIND LATER TODAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
STILL APPEARING POSSIBLE. OF NOTE, FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A LONGER PERIOD OF GALE- FORCE WINDS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR 1-2 FT AGL OF INUNDATION FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW (IE. MANTEO SOUTH THROUGH HATTERAS
VILLAGE).
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ029-044-079-090-091-198.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-150-
152-154-156-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/JME/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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