266
FXUS62 KMHX 212003
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 PM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND ACT TO REINFORCE THE COLD, DRY AIRMASS WHICH INVADED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK CONTINUING THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF EASTERN
NC
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH FRIDAY NOW THAT A MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD FROM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDANT AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES INLAND. DEWPOINTS HAVE CRASHED AND
ARE VERY LOW, CURRENTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S LOWER 30S. IF WINDS
WERE TO DECOUPLE, THEN IT WOULD BE A SLAM DUNK THAT LOW TEMPS
WOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER A LARGE AREA OF EASTERN NC
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WINDS WILL COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MIXING. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO
HAPPEN IS THAT SHELTERED LOCATIONS DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TEMPS DROPPING TO 30-32. HREF PROBABILITIES IN DESI
INDICATE HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITIES TO GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING
AND THE NEED TO EXPAND EASTWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST AND OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA
I.E. THE CROATAN FORREST, COULD ALSO SEE TEMPS BRIEFLY REACH 32
DEGREES TOO. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IF YOU HAVE PLANTS SENSITIVE TO
COLD ANYWHERE IN EASTERN NC, TAKE ACTIONS TO PROTECT THEM FOR
THE COLD. OPEN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
33-36 DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
LATE FRI. NOTHING OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH IT. ONCE
THE FRONT CROSSES, WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER A CHILLY START, HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW
50S BUT SHOULD GET THERE AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
- BREEZY AND COLD FRIDAY
- TRENDING WARMER LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
A LOWER CONFIDENCE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEK
OF THANKSGIVING. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER QUITE
A BIT, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS A DAY OR SO EITHER SIDE OF THANKSGIVING.
FRIDAY NIGHT- SATURDAY: YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS, WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 25- 35 MPH FOR MOST OF ENC, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX. INCREASED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, BUT ALSO COLDER TEMPS. BY
SATURDAY, THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO TOP OUT ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PLUS MODEST LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CHANCE IS
<10%, SO WE'LL KEEP A MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT ON SATURDAY, FURTHER LOWERING THE RISK
OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH OVER FLORIDA, ALLOWING A WEST OR SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY TOPPING OUT NEAR 70
ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER AS WELL.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: FROM A 50,000 FT VIEW, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS FLOW,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE
U.S. WEST COAST, AND HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH
THE WEEK. ONE CAMP OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL DAMPEN WITH
TIME, LEADING TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN THE OTHER CAMP, TUESDAY'S FRONT STALLS, WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. THAT SECOND
CAMP WOULD LEAD TO A MORE EVENTFUL THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD
COMPARED TO THE FIRST CAMP. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS
EVENTFUL SCENARIO.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH 21Z TODAY AND TO TO
AROUND 25 KT LATE FRI MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM
THURSDAY...
- GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY EVENING,
LEADING TO A RENEWED SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS INTO SATURDAY. DURING
THIS TIME, GUSTS OF 20-35KT ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SCA'S ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR TERM
AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC WATERS
THROUGH FRI. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AS COLD
ADVECTION PREVAILS. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE
FRI AND THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS OF 3 FT (NEARSHORE) TO 6 FT
(OFFSHORE) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
- GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ENC WATERS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR GALE- FORCE
GUSTS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL, WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE ENC WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST.
AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF THE CURRENT SIGNAL
HOLDS. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LAY DOWN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
THE BUILDING WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH ELEVATED SEAS LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, SEAS WILL LAY DOWN TO 2-3 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 4 AM THURSDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. INLAND MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35-40% AND
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 500 AM THURSDAY...
COASTAL GAUGES SHOWED A BUMP UP IN SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. WATER
LEVELS HAVE SINCE FALLEN BACK DOWN SOME, BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL WESTERLY SURGES OF WIND LATER TODAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY, WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
STILL APPEARING POSSIBLE. OF NOTE, FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A LONGER PERIOD OF GALE- FORCE WINDS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND THIS MAY BE THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR 1-2 FT AGL OF INUNDATION FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW (IE. MANTEO SOUTH THROUGH HATTERAS
VILLAGE).
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044-045-
079-080-090>092-193-198.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-150-
152-154-156-158-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-
135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/JME
MARINE...RM/JME
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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