978
FXUS62 KMHX 220748
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK CONTINUING THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
- BREEZY AND COLD TODAY
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING, THEN CROSS
THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. BENEATH THE UPPER LOW, A SFC LOW
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM PA INTO NY, LEADING TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS VA/NC. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS FROM LATE-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. OF NOTE, THE
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
AREAS TO SEE 35-40+ MPH GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FROM MID- AFTERNOON
ON. ALONG THE OBX, WIND GUSTS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA
(IE. 45 MPH), BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOW, THEREFORE WE'LL
HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.
NOTABLY LOW THICKNESS VALUES PLUS CONTINUED CAA THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD MAKE IT HARD TO REACH 50 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS TODAY.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THIS WOULD BE NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
- CONTINUED BREEZY AND COLD TONIGHT
- LOWER RISK OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S SHORTWAVE, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT THANKS TO A CONTINUED
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN LIGHT OF THIS, IT APPEARS MOST
AREAS WON'T DECOUPLE, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING
AS LOW AS THEY GOT THIS MORNING. EVEN THE COLDER AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
FAR SW SECTIONS OF ENC, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THERE
WOULD BE A RISK OF TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE
(MAINLY DUPLIN AND INLAND ONSLOW COUNTIES). BASED ON ALL OF THE
ABOVE, WE'LL PLAN TO FOREGO ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
- TRENDING WARMER LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA
OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
SATURDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFER QUITE A BIT, BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS A DAY
OR SO EITHER SIDE OF THANKSGIVING.
SATURDAY: YET ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF
25- 35 MPH FOR MOST OF ENC, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG THE OBX. INCREASED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL NOT
ONLY SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, BUT ALSO COLDER TEMPS. BY SATURDAY,
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP
OUT ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
BENEATH THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PLUS MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CHANCE IS <10%,
SO WE'LL KEEP A MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN ALOFT ON SATURDAY, FURTHER LOWERING THE RISK OF
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OFF
TO OUR SOUTH OVER FLORIDA, ALLOWING A WEST OR SOUTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY
TOPPING OUT NEAR 70 ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LIGHTER AS WELL.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: FROM A 50,000 FT VIEW, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS FLOW,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG
THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE CAMP OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL
DAMPEN WITH TIME, LEADING TO A MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. IN THE OTHER CAMP, TUESDAY'S FRONT
STALLS, WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEK. THAT SECOND CAMP WOULD LEAD TO A MORE EVENTFUL
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD COMPARED TO THE FIRST CAMP. SOMETHING
TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT
THE COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS EVENTFUL SCENARIO.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM FRIDAY...
- GUSTY WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITHIN THIS FLOW, AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BENEATH THIS FEATURE, PLUS DAYTIME
MIXING, WILL SUPPORT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY MID TO LATE-
MORNING ACROSS ENC, WITH GUSTS OF 20- 30 KT COMMON. GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITHIN THIS REGIME, PERIODS
OF SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ANY
CIGS SHOULD BE VFR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
- GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
LEADING TO A RENEWED SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS INTO SATURDAY. DURING
THIS TIME, GUSTS OF 20-35KT ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
- GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT. BY THIS
EVENING, THE WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 20-30KT EXPECTED. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-40KT ARE EXPECTED, AND A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT WHERE CONFIDENCE IN 34KT+ GUSTS IS THE
HIGHEST. OF NOTE, THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 34KT, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS
AREA WILL STAY JUST BELOW GALES, AND WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP THAT
AREA OUT OF THE GALE WARNING.
SEAS OF 3-6 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-7 FT BY THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. FOR
THE OUTER REACHES OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS, SEAS OF
7-8 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...
- GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT,
LEADING TO ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. WINDS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LAY DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THE BUILDING WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH ELEVATED SEAS LASTING INTO
SATURDAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND, SEAS WILL LAY DOWN TO 2-3 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
ADVECT INTO ENC WILL HELP KEEP RHS IN THE 30S AND 40S PERCENT.
BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, RHS SHOULDN'T GET AS LOW
AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD IF IT WERE JUST AS DRY, BUT WARMER. IN
LIGHT OF THIS, SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS AREN'T ANTICIPATED.
THAT SAID, IF ANY FIRE DOES START, THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE FIRE CONTROL DIFFICULT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOUNDSIDE COASTAL FLOODING,
INUNDATION 1-2 FT AGL. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS
FAVORED IN WESTERLY FLOW, DUCK TO HATTERAS VILLAGE (INCLUDING
AREAS IN ROANOKE ISLAND).
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>046-
079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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