851
FXUS62 KMHX 230306
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK CONTINUING THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APRROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 2200 FRIDAY...NO CHANGES REQUIRED AS FORECAST IS TRACKING
WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCO AS OF 1900 FRIDAY...WITH LOSS OF MIXING, WINDS
OVER INLAND AREAS HAVE REALLY FALLEN OFF AFTER SUNSET, PROMPTING
A MARKED DECREASE IN FORECASTED WINDS. WINDS AT BEACHES WERE
LOWERED AS WELL, BUT NOT AS DRASTICALLY. IN TURN, HAVE ALSO
LOWERED HRLY AND MINTS A DEGREE OR TWO, MORESO FOR THE TYPICAL
SHELTERED SPOTS, FOR THE INCREASE IN RAD COOLING GAINED WITH
THE WEAKER WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT, GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
DECENT CAA ONGOING, AND WILL PREVENT ATMS FROM DECOUPLING WITH A
10-20 MPH BREEZE OVERNIGHT INLAND. ON THE COAST, PARTICULARLY
THE OBX, WINDS WILL GUST UPWARDS OF AROUND 45 MPH, THOUGH REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADV CRITERIA. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT A
FREEZE OR FROST, THOUGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S COMBINED WITH THE
WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS FREEZING OR BELOW, WITH WIND
CHILLS AROUND 30 BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 3 PM FRI...THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT TOMORROW, AND TEMPS
WILL RISE DUE TO INC THICKNESSES. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW
CLIMO, BUT RISE SOME 10 DEGREES OR SO, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. SOME PLACES MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 60. EXPECTING LESS CLOUD
COVER, THOUGH SOME SCT TO OCNL BKN STRATO CU MAY DEVELOP DURING
PEAK HEATING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3:30 AM FRIDAY...
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY
- MULTIPLE FRONTS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING, SO LOWS WILL BE BACK DOWN
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (MID 40S BEACHES).
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT A DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER FORECAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY TO UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ON TUESDAY. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS ENC ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW WET OR DRY
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE, SO I OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME AND CAPPED POPS AT 20%.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS OF NOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RESUME. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
HOWEVER, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP ACROSS ENC AND LINGER
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED WETTER AND
SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN, BUT POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1845 FRIDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A CRISP BREEZE OUT OF THE W 8-10G15KT OVERNIGHT PRECLUDING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. RINSE AND REPEAT FOR SATURDAY; VFR WITH
WNWERLY WINDS 10-15KT G20KT IN AFTERNOON WITH VFR STRATOCU
BETWEEN FL040-070.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2200 FRIDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONGTERM WITH NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SUBVFR BEING FROPA NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 15-25KT WILL BECOME
WRLY AND INC TO 25-35 KT FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
BROUGHT THE GALES TO SCA'S FOR ALLIGATOR RIVER AS WRLY SHORT
FETCH WILL BE IN PLACE. MARGINAL GALES MAY OCCUR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FOR PAMLICO AND NEUSE RIVERS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE FETCH,
POSITIVE DELTA T'S AS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE
WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING AND SOLID GALES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MARINE DOMAIN OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 4-6 FT
WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT BY THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WIND
GRADIENT RELAXES ON SAT AND GALES WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY
SCA'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:30 AM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
ON SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
INLAND RIVERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, LASTING THE LONGEST FOR WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ALL
WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20
KT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
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