250
FXUS62 KMHX 230825
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
- CHILLY AND BREEZY AGAIN TODAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TODAY, WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING
WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO VA AND NC. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MIXING WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD TOP OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL MANAGE TO REACH
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY, ALLOWING HIGHS
TO TOP OUT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS MAY ALSO GET A BIT OF A
BOOST FROM NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS.
SHOULD DOWNSLOPE WARMING OVER-PERFORM, HIGHS MAY MANAGE TO REACH
THE LOW 60S FOR SOME. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WHICH IS A GOOD 5+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID- NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
- FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE
FOR MOST OF ENC, SETTING THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING THICKNESSES. IN
LIGHT OF THIS, I WENT BELOW BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE, LEANING MORE
HEAVILY ON THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE PERFORMED WELL 2 NIGHTS AGO). LIGHT WINDS PLUS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW LIGHT THE WINDS WILL GET, WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON HOW COLD IT GETS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR NOW, BUT CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER SHIFTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 2:30 AM SATURDAY...
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY
- COLD FRONTS ON TUESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL BRING NEXT RAIN
CHANCES
BROAD AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN U.S.
ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG LOW THAT PRODUCED MULTIPLE FRONTS THIS
PAST WEEK CONTINUES TO TREK TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR NOVA SCOTIA.
AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS ENC. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ENC ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE
STRONGEST SURFACE FRONT OF THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS ENC AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE AREA AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON SUNDAY TO MID TO UPPER 60S ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 70 AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER, POPS
HAVE STILL BEEN CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LAND (CHANCE POPS
OFFSHORE) WITH SCANT QPF (0.01 OR LESS). THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ENC, WHICH WILL LIMIT WEDNESDAY'S
HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP ACROSS ENC
AND LINGER THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED WETTER
WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT WHICH
POINT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...
- LLWS IMPACTS CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
- GUSTY WEST WINDS (20-25KT) CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
A SEMI-PERMANENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL KEEP A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS COASTAL
NC OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW, GUSTY AT TIMES, THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20-25KT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 35KT EXPECTED ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AND AS THE LOCAL GRADIENT RELAXES. OF
NOTE, OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, A WNW LOW-LEVEL JET OVERTOP THE
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL LLWS
CONDITIONS/IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF ENC.
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ACROSS ENC, AND WITH THIS TAF UPDATE, I TOOK OUT ALL LOW AND MID
CLOUD MENTION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE, I PULLED BACK ON THE CIG POTENTIAL SOME. EVEN
WHERE/IF CIGS OCCUR, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY AND RELAX TO AROUND 5
KT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
- SLOWLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 20-30KT (HIGHER GUSTS) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THEN SLOWLY LAY
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AND, ESPECIALLY, INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF ALL OF THIS, OUR PLAN IS TO GRADUALLY STEP
DOWN FROM GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THE WINDS
LAY DOWN. GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING ALL WATERS
FALLING BELOW 34KT WIND GUSTS BY MID-MORNING.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 5-10FT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY, BUT STEADILY LAY DOWN TO 3-5 FT BY THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 AM SATURDAY...ALL WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-5 FT WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX
ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
SOUNDSIDE WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO CONTINUED GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS. THOSE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AND WATER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY DECREASING. WE'LL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW, BUT MAY BE ABLE TO END IT EARLY IF
RECENT TRENDS HOLD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ131-
136-137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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