969
FXUS62 KMHX 232030
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM SAT...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRES CRESTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE FOR MOST OF ENC, SETTING THE STAGE FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING
THICKNESSES. CONT TO LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE 25TH PERCENTILE
OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE PERFORMED WELL 2
NIGHTS AGO). HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING,
AS AFTERNOON MIN TD'S WERE IN THE MID 30S AND NO LOWER,
SUGGESTING OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST
LOCALES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS MAY GET TO FREEZING,
HOWEVER THESE SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED FREEZING SEVERAL TIMES
THIS SEASON. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A LATE SEASON/LOW IMPACT FROST
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE MAINLAND COUNTIES WITH EXCEPTION OF EAST
CARTERET COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM SAT...AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SWRLY FLOW AND INC THICKNESSES AND HTS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK TO CLIMO, WHICH IS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. CONT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY ON TAP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 2:30 AM SATURDAY...
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY
- COLD FRONTS ON TUESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL BRING NEXT RAIN
CHANCES
AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS ENC. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ENC ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE
STRONGEST SURFACE FRONT OF THE PERIOD.
MONDAY...ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE AREA AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 70 AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER, POPS
HAVE STILL BEEN CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LAND (CHANCE POPS
OFFSHORE) WITH SCANT QPF (0.01 OR LESS). THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ENC, WHICH WILL LIMIT WEDNESDAY'S
HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP ACROSS ENC
AND LINGER THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED WETTER
WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT WHICH
POINT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...VFR MOSTLY SKC THROUGH THE TAF PD. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE RISK OF IMPACTFUL FG APPEARS LOW THANKS TO THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, BUT TYPICAL LIGHT STEAM FOG MAY AFFLICT KPGV
AND KOAJ, AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR BR IN THE FCST LATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY AND RELAX TO AROUND 5
KT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH, AND REMAINING SCA'S
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MEAN THAT SEAS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUITE AND
SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT AS WELL. EXPECT WRLY WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS, WITH 10-20 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. WINDS VEER SWRLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN BUT ONLY IN
THE 5-15 KT RANGE, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 AM SATURDAY...ALL WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-5 FT WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX
ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SK/OJC
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page