447
FXUS62 KMHX 240829
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
329 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
- TRENDING WARMER TODAY
THE FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL TODAY AS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NORTH OF THE HIGH, WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING WILL SETUP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, LEADING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMING LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES AIDED BY WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN EVERYTHING OUTLINED ABOVE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
- CHILLY TONIGHT, BUT LOWER RISK OF FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE SE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF ENC. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, TONIGHT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SOLID CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTING TEMPS BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULDN'T GET
QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE RISK
OF FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS AT A MINIMUM. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE 36 DEGREES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE TYPICALLY COLDER SHELTERED AREAS.
THANKS TO THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING, AND THIS MAY
INTRODUCE A RISK OF PATCHY FOG. BECAUSE OF THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDANT CONDITIONS, I DON'T EXPECT FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD, BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 2:30 AM SATURDAY...
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY
- COLD FRONTS ON TUESDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL BRING NEXT RAIN
CHANCES
AN UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS ENC. ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS ENC ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE
STRONGEST SURFACE FRONT OF THE PERIOD.
MONDAY...ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE AREA AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 70 AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER, POPS
HAVE STILL BEEN CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LAND (CHANCE POPS
OFFSHORE) WITH SCANT QPF (0.01 OR LESS). THIS FRONT WILL BRING
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ENC, WHICH WILL LIMIT WEDNESDAY'S
HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SETUP ACROSS ENC
AND LINGER THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED WETTER
WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT WHICH
POINT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...
- SHALLOW FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH NOTICEABLY LIGHTER WINDS, AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL, THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-LEVEL IMPACTS TO AVIATION AT A
MINIMUM, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE ONE THING
WE'LL BE WATCHING OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG (MIFG) AND REDUCTIONS TO VIS. HOWEVER, IMPACTFUL FG IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY AND RELAX TO AROUND 5
KT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
- IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY
BOATING CONDITIONS, WHILE NOT PERFECT, WILL BE IMPROVED
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT THIS MORNING WILL LAY
DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 AM SATURDAY...ALL WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-5 FT WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX
ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...SK/OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC
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