305
FXUS62 KMHX 240903
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
403 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
- TRENDING WARMER TODAY
THE FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL TODAY AS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NORTH OF THE HIGH, WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING WILL SETUP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, LEADING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMING LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES AIDED BY WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO TAKE ANOTHER STEP UP FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE BOARD,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN EVERYTHING OUTLINED ABOVE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
- CHILLY TONIGHT, BUT LOWER RISK OF FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE SE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF ENC. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, TONIGHT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SOLID CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTING TEMPS BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULDN'T GET
QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE RISK
OF FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS AT A MINIMUM. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE 36 DEGREES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE TYPICALLY COLDER SHELTERED AREAS.
THANKS TO THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD BE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING, AND THIS MAY
INTRODUCE A RISK OF PATCHY FOG. BECAUSE OF THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDANT CONDITIONS, I DON'T EXPECT FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD, BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 2:30 AM SUNDAY...
- WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY
- MULTIPLE FRONTS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY, THURSDAY, &
FRIDAY
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN
U.S. ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS ENC ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRIEFLY
TAKE OVER ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP ON
THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE PERIOD WILL CROSS ENC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AFTERWARDS.
MONDAY...ALL WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS ENC AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY...TUESDAY WILL HOST THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK AHEAD
OF A FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT. MOST PLACES WILL BE
AROUND 70. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 17
IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS LOOK LIGHT AND
SCATTERED AT BEST. OUR NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN THIS
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, WHICH WILL SEND OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RESUMES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW TO MID 60S EXCEPT ALONG THE NOBX
WHERE N TO NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS ENC AND POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FROPA, WHICH SHOULD CROSS ENC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
PAINTING A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, SO THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS ON FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND BRISK WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (40S BEACHES).
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...
- SHALLOW FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH NOTICEABLY LIGHTER WINDS, AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
OVERALL, THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE-LEVEL IMPACTS TO AVIATION AT A
MINIMUM, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE ONE THING
WE'LL BE WATCHING OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG (MIFG) AND REDUCTIONS TO VIS. HOWEVER, IMPACTFUL FG IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3:50 AM SUNDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INCREASING
TOWARDS LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SW AT 5-10 KT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE
NE ON WEDNESDAY AND RELAX TO AROUND 5 KT. BY THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AS A PRE-FRONTAL
SETS UP AND REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PEAK
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
- IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY
BOATING CONDITIONS, WHILE NOT PERFECT, WILL BE IMPROVED
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT THIS MORNING WILL LAY
DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3:50 AM SUNDAY...ALL WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL FLIRT WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY DUE TO A PASSING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND 4-5 FT SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON WEDNESDAY BUT REBOUND TO SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
(MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS). A TIGHTENED GRADIENT ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS PEAKING
OVERNIGHT AT 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-7 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC
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