091
FXUS62 KMHX 210019
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
719 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER ENTERS FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 PM FRI...ONLY SIG CHANGE OF NOTE FOR TONIGHT'S
FORECAST WAS TO ADD IN A FEW HOURS OF SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS,
THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EVEN IF SHOWERS
DID OCCUR. OTHERWISE CONTINUING TO TRACK THE INCOMING STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOTED NEAR THE TRIAD. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SWEEP SE'WARDS ACROSS THE ENC WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY FORECAST TO BE OFFSHORE BY ABOUT 10PM.
PREV DISC...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON, AIDING IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
WHILE EXPANSIVE AND COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. SHORTWAVE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME WEAK
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AND THIS WILL
MOVE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW OUR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL IS, BUT RELIABLE CAMS APPEAR TO MODESTLY FAVOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR A FEW HOURS, IN LINE WITH MAXIMUM DPVA, BUT VERY LITTLE QPF
IS EXPECTED.
STRONGER CAA AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN
RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. TEMPS WILL
FALL QUICKLY IN THE CAA, AND LEANED THE HOURLY T FORECAST NEAR
THE LOWEST PART OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FAVORING LOWS NEAR
FREEZING INLAND, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 340 PM FRI...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL INLAND, BUT
ALONG THE COAST TYPICAL CAA-DRIVEN STRATO-CU DECKS WILL LINGER.
ONGOING CAA WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN FURTHER, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND (UP TO 30 MPH OBX).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
- TRENDING MILDER, AND POTENTIALLY DRIER, OVER THE HOLIDAYS
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND SETTLE IN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST, INCLUDING ENC. LOCALLY, WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S ON SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. IN LIGHT
OF THIS, WE'LL STICK CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS LOW TO
MID 20S INLAND (LOW 30S BEACHES). OF NOTE, IF THE CIRRUS DOESN'T
HAVE THE ANTICIPATED IMPACT, LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
INLAND (20S BEACHES). SUNDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY, AS LIGHT
WINDS, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE, WE CONTINUE TO GO BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE, WITH LOWS MORE
REFLECTIVE OF THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS MID TO
UPPER TEENS INLAND, AND 20S ALONG AREA BEACHES. OF NOTE, ON THE
LOWEST SIDE OF GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW TO MID TEENS
FOR SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT
CARRIES THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AND
THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN LOCAL MESSAGING.
SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE WIND COMPARED TO
SUNDAY NIGHT, SO EVEN WITH SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD, THE "REAL FEEL"
TEMPERATURE MAY FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS. SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR
BOTH NIGHTS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED, WITH EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR RIDGING OVER THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST U.S. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THIS PATTERN, PARTICULARLY WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
MOVE OUT OF THE TN OR OH VALLEYS. PERHAPS MOST NOTABLE IS THAT
RECENT 18Z/00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN, WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A LOW-END CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL, A MODERATING TREND APPEARS
LIKELY, AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO
FOR LATE DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S AND 60S ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM FRI...NO REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FROM THEIR CURRENT
VALUES AROUND 4 KFT INLAND AND 2-3 KFT ALONG THE OBX AND
IMMEDIATE COAST TO 10+ KFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CIGS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE 10 KFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH ABOUT 10PM AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS ENC
TONIGHT, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, SO KEPT
THIS OUT OF THE TAF'S. AFTER 10PM, STRONG DRY ADVECTION BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WILL SCOUR OUT ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH NO PRECIP IN
THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. ONLY OTHER THING TO NOTE
WILL BE THE STEADY NW WIND OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT 5 KTS INCREASING
CLOSER TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS LATE SAT MORNING INTO
SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS EASE ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT LOOKS TO BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM FRI...MARINE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE
ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DEEPENS AND SENDS NORTHERLY SWELL TOWARDS OUR
COAST. SEAS RIGHT NOW ARE HOVERING AROUND 5 FEET NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT,
TAKING A NOTABLE JUMP SAT MORNING AS INCREASING CAA ALOFT
INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. BY
THE END OF SATURDAY, SEAS NORTH OF HATTERAS WILL BE AROUND 6-8
FEET.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SCA, BUT WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
FUNNELING WINDS ACROSS THE ALLIGATOR RIVER AND THE MOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND, EXPANDED HEADLINES TO ENCOMPASS THOSE WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
A MODEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST, AND AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A WEAKER
GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE ENC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS
WILL BE A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TYPE OF SCENARIO. WHILE GALE-
FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED FOR
NOW. STAY TUNED IN CASE THE RISK OF GALES WERE TO INCREASE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/MS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page