729
FXUS62 KMHX 210545
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. DRY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER ENTERS FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 10 PM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE AS
EVERYTHING IS TRACKING WELL THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST
AS OF THIS UPDATE. STRONGER CAA AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN THE CAA, AND LEANED THE
HOURLY T FORECAST NEAR THE LOWEST PART OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
FAVORING LOWS NEAR FREEZING INLAND, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
AS OF 340 PM FRI...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL INLAND, BUT
ALONG THE COAST TYPICAL CAA-DRIVEN STRATO-CU DECKS WILL LINGER.
ONGOING CAA WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN FURTHER, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND (UP TO 30 MPH OBX).
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
- TRENDING MILDER, AND POTENTIALLY DRIER, OVER THE HOLIDAYS
A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND SETTLE IN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST, INCLUDING ENC. LOCALLY, WE
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S ON SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. IN LIGHT
OF THIS, WE'LL STICK CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS LOW TO
MID 20S INLAND (LOW 30S BEACHES). OF NOTE, IF THE CIRRUS DOESN'T
HAVE THE ANTICIPATED IMPACT, LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
INLAND (20S BEACHES). SUNDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY, AS LIGHT
WINDS, HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON. GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE, WE CONTINUE TO GO BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE, WITH LOWS MORE
REFLECTIVE OF THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS MID TO
UPPER TEENS INLAND, AND 20S ALONG AREA BEACHES. OF NOTE, ON THE
LOWEST SIDE OF GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW TO MID TEENS
FOR SOME OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. SUNDAY NIGHT
CARRIES THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AND
THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN LOCAL MESSAGING.
SATURDAY NIGHT ALSO HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE WIND COMPARED TO
SUNDAY NIGHT, SO EVEN WITH SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD, THE "REAL FEEL"
TEMPERATURE MAY FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS. SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR
BOTH NIGHTS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED, WITH EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR RIDGING OVER THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST U.S. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THIS PATTERN, PARTICULARLY WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT MAY
MOVE OUT OF THE TN OR OH VALLEYS. PERHAPS MOST NOTABLE IS THAT
RECENT 18Z/00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN, WE'LL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A LOW-END CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND. REGARDLESS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL, A MODERATING TREND APPEARS
LIKELY, AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO
FOR LATE DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S AND 60S ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PRESENT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THIS UPDATE, WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A 5KFT DECK OF STRATUS QUICKLY SCOURING
OUT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO CALM.
AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME, SOME VFR 5-7KFT CIGS COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CHANCES OF THESE
CLOUDS DROPPING TO SUB VFR ARE LESS THAN 10%. SKIES CLEAR AND
NW WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT POSSIBLE FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS.
FEW/SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
OBX WILL BE GUSTIER THAN INLAND LOCALES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH 15-25KT GUSTS FROM THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 20-30KT GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT GUSTS EASE A BIT AGAIN, BECOMING 15-25KT, STILL
FROM THE NW. CAA REGIME WILL PROMOTE MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL WATERS OFF OF NOBX AND HATTERAS ISLAND,
WITH DROPS TO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM FRI...MARINE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE
ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DEEPENS AND SENDS NORTHERLY SWELL TOWARDS OUR
COAST. SEAS RIGHT NOW ARE HOVERING AROUND 5 FEET NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT,
TAKING A NOTABLE JUMP SAT MORNING AS INCREASING CAA ALOFT
INCREASES NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. BY
THE END OF SATURDAY, SEAS NORTH OF HATTERAS WILL BE AROUND 6-8
FEET.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO SCA, BUT WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
FUNNELING WINDS ACROSS THE ALLIGATOR RIVER AND THE MOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND, EXPANDED HEADLINES TO ENCOMPASS THOSE WATERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
A MODEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST, AND AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS INTO SUNDAY. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO A WEAKER
GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS.
MARINE HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE ENC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS
WILL BE A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TYPE OF SCENARIO. WHILE GALE-
FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED FOR
NOW. STAY TUNED IN CASE THE RISK OF GALES WERE TO INCREASE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ131-230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/MS
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