887
FXUS62 KMHX 211439
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
939 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING COLD, DRY
CONDITIONS AND DETERIORATED MARINE CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WARMING TREND ENSUES.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. STRONGER CAA AND DRY
ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. CAA USHERS IN A CHILLY DAY
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. NW GUSTS 15-25MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DURING THE "WARMEST" PART OF THE DAY.
SCT/BKN SCU CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OBX WILL SEE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH
BUILDING IN. NW GUSTS OF 25-30MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
FOR OBX. ALONG THE COAST TYPICAL CAA- DRIVEN STRATO-CU DECKS
WILL LINGER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED CAA AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
RESULTS IN COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION, WITH A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT LINGERING, WE MAY NOT TRULY BECOME CALM TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE LOWS TONIGHT TO BE TRICKY AS WE MAY NOT TRULY
DECOUPLE IF CLOUDS REMAIN OVERHEAD AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. IN
LIGHT OF THIS, KEPT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
INLAND (LOW 30S BEACHES). OF NOTE, IF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
DOESN'T HAVE THE ANTICIPATED IMPACT, AND/OR IF THE WINDS DO
CALM OVERNIGHT, LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS INLAND (20S
BEACHES). MARINE STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF
OBX TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIP OVER THE HOLIDAYS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP, LOWS OFTEN END UP BELOW
BLENDED GUIDANCE. INTERESTINGLY, THOUGH, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
A TOUCH "WARMER" SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS
TREND TO SOME EXTENT. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS, I DON'T WANT TO LATCH ONTO THE RECENT TREND TOO
QUICKLY. IT WILL BE COLD REGARDLESS, BUT IF THE RECENT TREND HOLDS,
WE MAY NOT QUITE GET TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN WITH
THE BUMP UP, INLAND LOWS SHOULD STILL EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS,
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HEADLINE OR NOT, THE KEY MESSAGE IS STILL THE
SAME...IT WILL BE COLD.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE, WE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT JUMP RIGHT BACK TO CLIMO. WITHIN
THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW, A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE TROUGH
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. PRIOR TO THEN, MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WAVE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF ENC ON TUESDAY. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. IF THE GREAT
LAKES WAVE IS STRONGER, THEN THERE WOULD BE A MORE CLEAN, AND
QUICKER, END OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THAT WAVE NOT BE AS STRONG, THE
SHOWER RISK MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE CHAOTIC, AND IS IN LESS AGREEMENT
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN GENERAL, GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WHICH
WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE W AND NW OF ENC, AND
CONSEQUENTLY KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOWER. HOWEVER, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS DRY. THE DRYING TREND IS NOTABLE, BUT NOT A
CERTAINTY JUST YET. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS A STEADY MODERATING
TREND, WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S, WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THIS PUTS US CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THE END OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PRESENT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS UPDATE, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND 5-7KFT CIGS
MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN, FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CHANCES
OF THESE CLOUDS DROPPING TO SUB VFR ARE LESS THAN 10%. SKIES
CLEAR AND NW WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT POSSIBLE FOR ALL TAF
TERMINALS. FEW/SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OBX WILL BE GUSTIER THAN INLAND LOCALES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH 15-25KT GUSTS FROM THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 20-30KT GUSTS FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT GUSTS EASE A BIT AGAIN, BECOMING 15-25KT, STILL
FROM THE NW. CAA REGIME WILL PROMOTE MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER COASTAL WATERS OFF OF NOBX AND HATTERAS ISLAND,
WITH DROPS TO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CIGS AND A CHANCE OF
SHRA. GUIDANCE DOESN'T ALWAYS HANDLE COASTAL TROUGHS WELL DAYS IN
ADVANCE, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH NOTING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM SATURDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
DETERIORATING ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHEAST DEEPENS AND SENDS NORTHERLY SWELL AND STRONG
NW WINDS OUR WAY. LATEST OBS SHOW NNW WINDS 15-25KT WITH SEAS
5-8 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-6 FT SOUTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY, AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SEAS NORTH
OF HATTERAS WILL BE AROUND 6-8 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EASING UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES AND THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS
UNTIL 7AM SUNDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE COLLECTION OF
SCAS WITH THIS UPDATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ENC WATERS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAYS, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS ONCE
WE GET PAST THIS WEEKEND. THAT SAID, A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT, AND
SUPPORT MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
BUT OF NOTE, SOME GUIDANCE TRY TO DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE TROUGH. SHOULD THAT OCCUR, THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED RISK OF
SCA CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS. OTHERWISE, NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY MONDAY, AND REMAIN IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/CQD/RJ
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