597
FXUS62 KMHX 220013
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
713 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING COLD, DRY
CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
WARMING TREND ENSUES.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 715 PM SAT... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
OF THIS UPDATE. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING WHILE TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO PLUMMET AS WINDS HAVE
REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS ENC.
PREV DISC...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1035MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SCT TO BROKEN SCU CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE, WHICH COULD
LIMIT TEMPS INITIALLY. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND LATE
TONIGHT, THOUGH FLOW WILL KEEP SCU STREAMING ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. HOWEVER, IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO
DECOUPLE INLAND THEN TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. COLD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S INLAND
AND LOW 30S FOR THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY, MAKING FOR A COLD/DRY DAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND NNE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP SCU STREAMING OVER THE OUTER BANKS, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIP OVER THE HOLIDAYS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP, LOWS OFTEN END UP BELOW
BLENDED GUIDANCE. INTERESTINGLY, THOUGH, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
A TOUCH "WARMER" SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS
TREND TO SOME EXTENT. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS, I DON'T WANT TO LATCH ONTO THE RECENT TREND TOO
QUICKLY. IT WILL BE COLD REGARDLESS, BUT IF THE RECENT TREND HOLDS,
WE MAY NOT QUITE GET TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN WITH
THE BUMP UP, INLAND LOWS SHOULD STILL EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS,
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HEADLINE OR NOT, THE KEY MESSAGE IS STILL THE
SAME...IT WILL BE COLD.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE, WE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT JUMP RIGHT BACK TO CLIMO. WITHIN
THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW, A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE TROUGH
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. PRIOR TO THEN, MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WAVE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF ENC ON TUESDAY. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. IF THE GREAT
LAKES WAVE IS STRONGER, THEN THERE WOULD BE A MORE CLEAN, AND
QUICKER, END OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THAT WAVE NOT BE AS STRONG, THE
SHOWER RISK MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE CHAOTIC, AND IS IN LESS AGREEMENT
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN GENERAL, GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WHICH
WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE W AND NW OF ENC, AND
CONSEQUENTLY KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOWER. HOWEVER, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS DRY. THE DRYING TREND IS NOTABLE, BUT NOT A
CERTAINTY JUST YET. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS A STEADY MODERATING
TREND, WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S, WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THIS PUTS US CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THE END OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM SAT... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON
THIS UPDATE AS PRED VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER ENC THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MO CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND WE WILL REMAIN FOG FREE TONIGHT WITH AMPLE DRY AIR IN
PLACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE
OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN WHERE N'RLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR COLD AIR SCU TO STREAM IN ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CIGS AND A CHANCE OF
SHRA. GUIDANCE DOESN'T ALWAYS HANDLE COASTAL TROUGHS WELL DAYS IN
ADVANCE, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH NOTING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
5-8 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-6 FT SOUTH. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, KEEPING A MODEST GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
N/NNE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT AND 10-20 KT
SUNDAY AND SEAS 4-7 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ENC WATERS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAYS, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS ONCE
WE GET PAST THIS WEEKEND. THAT SAID, A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT, AND
SUPPORT MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
BUT OF NOTE, SOME GUIDANCE TRY TO DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE TROUGH. SHOULD THAT OCCUR, THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED RISK OF
SCA CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS. OTHERWISE, NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY MONDAY, AND REMAIN IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CQD/RCF
MARINE...RM/CQD
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