385
FXUS62 KMHX 220519
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1219 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING COLD, DRY
CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
WARMING TREND ENSUES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1010 PM SAT...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF THE COAST AS OF THIS UPDATE.
TEMPS HAVE TAKEN THEIR TIME TO FALL GIVEN A LIGHT BREEZE AND
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE BUT GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. SKIES
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH FLOW WILL KEEP
SCU STREAMING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. HOWEVER,
IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE INLAND THEN TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/
AS OF 230 PM SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY, MAKING FOR A COLD/DRY DAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND NNE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP SCU STREAMING OVER THE OUTER BANKS, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIP OVER THE HOLIDAYS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. A
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP, LOWS OFTEN END UP BELOW
BLENDED GUIDANCE. INTERESTINGLY, THOUGH, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
A TOUCH "WARMER" SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS
TREND TO SOME EXTENT. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS, I DON'T WANT TO LATCH ONTO THE RECENT TREND TOO
QUICKLY. IT WILL BE COLD REGARDLESS, BUT IF THE RECENT TREND HOLDS,
WE MAY NOT QUITE GET TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN WITH
THE BUMP UP, INLAND LOWS SHOULD STILL EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS,
WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. HEADLINE OR NOT, THE KEY MESSAGE IS STILL THE
SAME...IT WILL BE COLD.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE, WE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT JUMP RIGHT BACK TO CLIMO. WITHIN
THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW, A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE TROUGH
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. PRIOR TO THEN, MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY COMBINE WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WAVE, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF ENC ON TUESDAY. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE LATER TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE. IF THE GREAT
LAKES WAVE IS STRONGER, THEN THERE WOULD BE A MORE CLEAN, AND
QUICKER, END OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THAT WAVE NOT BE AS STRONG, THE
SHOWER RISK MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE CHAOTIC, AND IS IN LESS AGREEMENT
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IN GENERAL, GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WHICH
WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE W AND NW OF ENC, AND
CONSEQUENTLY KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOWER. HOWEVER, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS DRY. THE DRYING TREND IS NOTABLE, BUT NOT A
CERTAINTY JUST YET. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS A STEADY MODERATING
TREND, WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S, WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THIS PUTS US CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THE END OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC AND P6SM VIS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF TERMINALS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF OBX
COULD SEE MVFR MARINE STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE PERIOD, STARTING
OFF OFFSHORE AND SHIFTING OVER OBX THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS
VEER FROM NNW TO N.
LONG TERM /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A COASTAL TROUGH
MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CIGS AND A CHANCE OF
SHRA. GUIDANCE DOESN'T ALWAYS HANDLE COASTAL TROUGHS WELL DAYS IN
ADVANCE, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH NOTING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM SAT...ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO END THE
SCA'S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND SOUNDS AS WIND GUSTS
HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW 25 KTS TONIGHT AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
BACK TO 25 KTS EVEN WITH ANY POTENTIAL N'RLY SURGES ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. LEFT THE COASTAL SCA'S ALONE.
PREV DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW N WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
5-8 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-6 FT SOUTH. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, KEEPING A MODEST GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
N/NNE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT AND 10-20 KT
SUNDAY AND SEAS 4-7 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ENC WATERS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAYS, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS ONCE
WE GET PAST THIS WEEKEND. THAT SAID, A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT, AND
SUPPORT MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE SUB SCA CONDITIONS. THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO,
BUT OF NOTE, SOME GUIDANCE TRY TO DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE TROUGH. SHOULD THAT OCCUR, THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED RISK OF
SCA CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS. OTHERWISE, NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS OF 4-7 FT ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN TO 2-4 FT BY MONDAY, AND REMAIN IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/CQD/RCF
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