824
FXUS62 KMHX 240312
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 PM EST MON DEC 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST CHRISTMAS EVE BRINGING RAIN AND DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LATE EVE UPDATE, JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE. THIS WILL
BE RESPONSE TO A LOW AMPLITUDE (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON TUE. AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT, A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHARPEN OVERNIGHT WHILE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OFF OF THE SC
COAST. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW (8-12Z) FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF GREENE,
NORTHWEST PITT, AND WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES BUT THE 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS VERY LOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED HIGHWAYS AND BRIDGES. CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES 6-9Z
THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD.
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY OCCURING NOW, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S FOR THE BEACHES. CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS WILL LATE CAUSE TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS
TO BEGIN RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 235 PM MONDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE DAY WILL BE RAINY AND RAW
ACROSS EASTERN NC, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST (EAST OF HIGHWAY
17) WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THE OFFSHORE LOW TRACKS WELL OFF THE NC
COAST. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM .10" OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND 0.25" WITH
SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 0.75" OF AN INCH. EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY EAST OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
*HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON CHRISTMAS WITH DRY AND MILDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED
*DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ON CHRISTMAS WITH DRIER BUT STILL COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OBX TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF US 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUD
SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM, AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME MODEL SPREAD REMAINS FOR THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COASTAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENING AND MOVING NEARSHORE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC ON SATURDAY, AND THEN SUNDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE UNSETTLED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S LIKELY.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM MONDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT THEN LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR AT THE COASTAL
TAF SITES (EWN-OAJ) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE AS LIGHT
RAIN WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS
THROUGH 12Z TUE. THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
AVIATION GUIDANCE WITH THE CONSENSUS INDICATING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TUE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH BEST CHANCES AT OAJ AND EWN. WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRED IFR IN TAFS FOR NOW, BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL GRAD END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-20 KT AND
SEAS 3-5 FT. SCA'S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT THEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF OF
THE NC COAST ON TUE PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN
INCREASE TO 15-25 KT TUE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT AND WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT. SOME
OCCASIONAL 6 FOOTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF STREAM THIS
EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET LATE TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM MON...SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT.
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS AT 20-30 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY,
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME NNE/NE AT 10-20 KTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL RISE TO 5-7 FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS TO THE NORTH. EVENTUALLY 5-7 FT SEAS
WILL SPREAD TO ALL WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY TO 3-5 FT, EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE SEAS WILL
REMAIN 4-6 FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. 3-5 FT SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...JME/CQD/SGK
MARINE...JME/CQD/SGK
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