721
FXUS62 KMHX 240901
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
401 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST TODAYE BRINGING RAIN AND DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS INTO THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS UNSETTLED
WEATHER SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND
TREKS UP THE SE COAST. AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW BRINGS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, HIGHEST IN DURATION AND AMOUNTS ALONG
THE COAST. OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND BREEZE NORTHERLY
WINDS MAKE FOR A CHILLY AND RAINY DAY DESPITE THE AREA OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENTERING THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 40S INLAND, LOW 50S FOR BEACHES.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ONSLOW AND DUPLIN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 6-8AM BEFORE EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST. RAINFALL SHIELD
WILL FOLLOW THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW, SO NW PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL RECEIVE THE LEAST RAINFALL (LESS THAN 0.1"), AND
EASTERN PORTIONS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL (0.25-0.5"). THE
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
LINGER INTO TONIGHT FOR OBX AS THE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA.
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WE HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON FREEZING
RAIN CONCERNS FOR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK
FURTHER AS THE STUBBORN DRY LAYER AT AROUND 5KFT IS SLOW TO
ERODE, SO WHEN PRECIP DOES REACH MARTIN AND PITT COUNTIES, WE
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH DUE TO TYPICAL DIURNAL HEATING TO PRECLUDE
ANY FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT, PREVENTING US FROM TRULY DECOUPLING, BUT
IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S INLAND, LOW TO
MID 40S FOR BEACHES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUES...
KEY MESSAGES
*HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON CHRISTMAS WITH DRY AND MILDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED
*DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THOUGH IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY, WE WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX TO THE
MID 50S SOUTH OF US 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL BE QUITE DISORGANIZED AND FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE THAT WE
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT ASIDE FROM
INCREASED COASTAL CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE, A UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. ASSUMING THERE ARE AT LEAST
SOME BREAKS OF SUN, WE SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S, BUT 70S
ARE POSSIBLE IF THERE'S ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOST MODELS NOW SHOWING A POTENTIALLY
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BRINGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 30-50% SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THERE BEING
CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL AT THIS RANGE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM MONDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN LOWER TO AT LEAST
MVFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES (EWN- OAJ) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z TUE AS LIGHT RAIN WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH 12Z TUE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MID TUE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH BEST
CHANCES AT OAJ AND EWN. WILL CONTINUE HOLDING OFF ON PRED IFR IN
TAFS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY. RAIN
CHANCES AND SUB- VFR CEILINGS WILL GRAD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 18Z.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUES...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTH 10-15KT
WILL BE INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE, REACHING 10-20G15-25KT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
ONCE THE LOW IS DIRECTLY TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, WINDS PICK UP EVEN
MORE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS BEGIN 18Z TODAY FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS,
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PAMLICO SOUND AND ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WHILE REMAINING INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE FREQUENT GUSTS LESS THAN 25
KTS.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3-4 FT FOR MUCH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. DUE
TO THE WINDS INCREASING TODAY, SEAS WILL QUICKLY RESPOND,
BUILDING TO 3-6 FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 2-4 FT NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS. WITH THE LOW TO OUR EAST, BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
SEAS WILL BECOME 4-8 FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 4-7 FT NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL WATERS, BUT NO
THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUES...A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
WINDS WILL BE NNE AT 20-30 KTS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.
THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO N 15-25 KTS THURSDAY, AND THEN
NE AT 10-20 KTS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 5-15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
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