144
FXUS62 KMHX 241847
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
147 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST TODAY BRINGING RAIN AND DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS INTO THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS UNSETTLED
WEATHER SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...A COASTAL LOW HAS FORMED TO OUR SOUTH AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THANKS TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS
LOW, SEVERAL COASTAL PLAIN COMMUNITIES ARE RECEIVING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BUT GROUND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE OBX AND SOME
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOW THAT SOME OF THIS IS FALLING
VIRGA THANKS TO A DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY, POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FOR AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 17 AND INCREASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST. RAIN WILL LINGER
INTO TONIGHT FOR THE OBX. THIS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL ONLY
PROVIDE ABOUT 0.1-0.2" FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND AREAS CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHILE COMMUNITIES IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA MIGHT SEE LESS THAN 0.05-0.1".
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT, PREVENTING US FROM TRULY DECOUPLING, BUT
IT WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 30S INLAND, LOW TO
MID 40S FOR BEACHES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUES...
KEY MESSAGES
*HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON CHRISTMAS WITH DRY AND MILDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED
*DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THOUGH IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY, WE WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX TO THE
MID 50S SOUTH OF US 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL BE QUITE DISORGANIZED AND FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE THAT WE
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT ASIDE FROM
INCREASED COASTAL CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE, A UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. ASSUMING THERE ARE AT LEAST
SOME BREAKS OF SUN, WE SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S, BUT 70S
ARE POSSIBLE IF THERE'S ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOST MODELS NOW SHOWING A POTENTIALLY
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BRINGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 30-50% SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THERE BEING
CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL AT THIS RANGE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...A COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH IS MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST AND GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CAUSING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RANGE
FROM VFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS ARE THE WORST SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE 300-500 FT CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING. THESE
LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE OBX
AND ALLOWING THE COASTAL PLAIN TO RECOVER. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
OBX WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IF ANY SPOTS
ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE, FOG WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE GIVEN
TODAY'S SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW
AND SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUES...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...WINDS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTH 10-15KT
WILL BE INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE, REACHING 10-20G15-25KT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
ONCE THE LOW IS DIRECTLY TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, WINDS PICK UP EVEN
MORE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS BEGIN 18Z TODAY FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS,
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PAMLICO SOUND AND ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WHILE REMAINING INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE FREQUENT GUSTS LESS THAN 25
KTS.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3-4 FT FOR MUCH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. DUE
TO THE WINDS INCREASING TODAY, SEAS WILL QUICKLY RESPOND,
BUILDING TO 3-6 FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 2-4 FT NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS. WITH THE LOW TO OUR EAST, BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
SEAS WILL BECOME 4-8 FT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 4-7 FT NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL WATERS, BUT NO
THUNDER IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUES...A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
WINDS WILL BE NNE AT 20-30 KTS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.
THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO N 15-25 KTS THURSDAY, AND THEN
NE AT 10-20 KTS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 5-15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...OJC/SGK
MARINE...SGK/RJ
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