467
FXUS62 KMHX 242002
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST TODAY BRINGING RAIN AND DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS INTO THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS UNSETTLED
WEATHER SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE COASTAL LOW IS OFF THE FL/GA COAST AND
IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST, WHICH HAS CAUSED OVERCAST SKIES,
LIGHT SHOWERS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR ENC. SHOWERS WILL
SOON START TO TAPER OFF FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT WILL INCREASE
FOR THE OBX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG THE OBX MAY STICK AROUND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-30S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN TO MID-40S ALONG THE OBX.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BRING BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN THE LOW- TO MID-50S WITH
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL SEE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL
HOLD ON TO GREATER CLOUD COVER DUE TO A LINGERING BOUNDARY
NEARBY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE LOW, WHICH WILL SUPPORT 25-30 MPH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUES...
KEY MESSAGES
*HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON CHRISTMAS WITH DRY AND MILDER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED
*DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPS AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THOUGH IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY, WE WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX TO THE
MID 50S SOUTH OF US 70 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL BE QUITE DISORGANIZED AND FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE THAT WE
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT ASIDE FROM
INCREASED COASTAL CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE, A UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. ASSUMING THERE ARE AT LEAST
SOME BREAKS OF SUN, WE SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S, BUT 70S
ARE POSSIBLE IF THERE'S ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOST MODELS NOW SHOWING A POTENTIALLY
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BRINGING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 30-50% SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THERE BEING
CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL AT THIS RANGE. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1:30 PM TUESDAY...A COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH IS MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST AND GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CAUSING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO RANGE
FROM VFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS ARE THE WORST SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 70 WHERE 300-500 FT CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING. THESE
LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE OBX
AND ALLOWING THE COASTAL PLAIN TO RECOVER. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
OBX WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IF ANY SPOTS
ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE, FOG WOULD CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE GIVEN
TODAY'S SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW
AND SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUES...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3:30 PM TUESDAY...A COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE OF FL AND GA IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THE WIND AND
SEAS ACROSS OUR WATERS. CURRENTLY, WINDS ARE 15-20 KT OUT OF THE
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND PEAK AROUND 25-30 KT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SEAS
WILL ALSO BUILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND PEAK AT 5-7 FT FROM
OREGON INLET SOUTH. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO
SURF CITY WITH ADDITIONAL SCAS STARTING FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND
AND REMAINING COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SCAS
WILL START TO DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING TOMORROW
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUES...A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
WINDS WILL BE NNE AT 20-30 KTS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.
THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO N 15-25 KTS THURSDAY, AND THEN
NE AT 10-20 KTS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 5-15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT
THURSDAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/OJC
MARINE...SGK/OJC
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