049
FXUS62 KMHX 250906
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 AM EST WED DEC 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH,
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 350 AM WED...MORE SETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AMPLIFIES BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT
PLAGUED OUR AREA YESTERDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CONTINUES TO
LINGER OFFSHORE WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE,
LEAVING ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION VOID OF CLOUDS APART FROM SOME
VERY THIN CIRRUS.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING
AMPLIFIES FURTHER AND HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHES ITSELF ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. CAA STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE TO STRADDLE COASTAL
AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. CIRRUS
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE OVER TX TAPS
INTO DEEPER GOM MOISTURE, BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPEDE TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND, EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 ACROSS NOBX.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM WED...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD. MAY SEE SOME MODEST INCREASE IN
STRATO-CU ALONG THE COAST AS AN OFFSHORE COAST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL OVER OPEN WATER. CLOUD COVER AND
STEADY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING INLAND BUT IN
THE LOW 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN WELL SHELTERED AREAS
WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
*DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE QUITE DISORGANIZED AND FAR ENOUGH
OFF SHORE THAT WE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT
ASIDE FROM INCREASED COASTAL CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S THURSDAY
AND LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST SUNDAY, IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND ALLOW FOR DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SWING A SLOW MOVING
BUT POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY, OR ABOUT 50-60% LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT THOSE DETAILS REMAIN
MURKY AT THIS TIME RANGE....HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
TO INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
DRIER CONDITIONS REEMERGE LATE MONDAY AND LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THU/...
AS OF 1245 AM WED...MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLIER
TODAY HAS QUICKLY GIVEN WAY TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE FEAR LIFTS OUT TO SEE. COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW IS SCOURING OUT LOWER CLOUD COVER, AND
NOW EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MVFR WILL HANG ON ALONG OBX FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
AS IS TYPICAL IN CAA REGIMES.
NORTH WINDS PERSIST TOMORROW, GUSTING UP TO 15 KT AT TIMES
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM WED...WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST NC COAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES HAS USHERED IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARM GULF STREAM WATERS, BUT CLOSER TO SHORE WINDS ARE CLOSER TO
15-20 KT WHERE MIXING IS MORE POOR OVER COOLER WATERS. STILL,
WINDS HAVE PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET.
LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, BUT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING REMAINS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERFORECAST WINDS OVER SOUNDS AND RIVERS
AND TRIMMED BACK SCA HEADLINES FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON
THIS PERSISTENT BIAS. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO EASE
THROUGH THE DAY AND 6+ FOOT WAVES WILL HOLD PAST SUNSET TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF A COASTAL TROUGH
NE WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH WINDS
20-25 KTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO MARGINAL,
WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING CURRENTS SCAS OUT THIS FAR,
BUT THAT REMAINS A FUTURE POSSIBILITY.
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LET DOWN TO NE 10-20 KTS, AND THEN BY
SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 10-20 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT TO AT LEAST S
15-25 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 3-5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-7 FT SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS
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