414
FXUS62 KMHX 251948
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 PM EST WED DEC 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH,
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2:30 PM WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THE
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS DAY. ASIDE
FROM INCREASING CIRRUS COVERAGE, TONIGHT WILL BE UNEVENTFUL WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW-30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE
MID-40S ALONG THE OBX. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT SHOULD SOME AREAS
DECOUPLE, SOME MINOR DITCH FOG IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 2:35 PM WEDNESDAY...TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND A COPY/PASTE OF TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW- TO
MID-50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
*DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE QUITE DISORGANIZED AND FAR ENOUGH
OFF SHORE THAT WE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT
ASIDE FROM INCREASED COASTAL CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S THURSDAY
AND LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST SUNDAY, IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND ALLOW FOR DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SWING A SLOW MOVING
BUT POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY, OR ABOUT 50-60% LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT THOSE DETAILS REMAIN
MURKY AT THIS TIME RANGE....HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
TO INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
DRIER CONDITIONS REEMERGE LATE MONDAY AND LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THU/...
AS OF 12:30 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER ENC. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASE TO
AROUND 5 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. IF ANY AREAS ARE
ABLE TO DECOUPLE, SOME MINOR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE 18Z TAFS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:40 PM WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LINGERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30 KT. SEAS HAVE
RESPONDED AS WELL AND ARE CURRENTLY 5-7 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, NE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 15-25 KT AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 4-6 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, SO THE ONGOING SCAS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF A COASTAL TROUGH
NE WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH WINDS
20-25 KTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO MARGINAL,
WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING CURRENTS SCAS OUT THIS FAR,
BUT THAT REMAINS A FUTURE POSSIBILITY.
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LET DOWN TO NE 10-20 KTS, AND THEN BY
SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 10-20 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT TO AT LEAST S
15-25 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 3-5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-7 FT SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...OJC/SGK
MARINE...OJC/SGK
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