541
FXUS62 KMHX 260527
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1227 AM EST THU DEC 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 945 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR LATE EVE UPDATE, JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS DAY. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CIRRUS COVERAGE, TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW-30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW-40S ALONG THE OBX. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT SHOULD SOME AREAS
DECOUPLE, SOME MINOR DITCH FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 2:35 PM WEDNESDAY...TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND A COPY/PASTE OF TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW- TO
MID-50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
*DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
AND THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY FORM, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE QUITE DISORGANIZED AND FAR ENOUGH
OFF SHORE THAT WE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE IMPACTS FROM IT
ASIDE FROM INCREASED COASTAL CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S THURSDAY
AND LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST SUNDAY, IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND ALLOW FOR DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SWING A SLOW MOVING
BUT POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
OR EARLY MONDAY. ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY, OR ABOUT 50-60% LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, BUT THOSE DETAILS REMAIN
MURKY AT THIS TIME RANGE....HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL
TO INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
DRIER CONDITIONS REEMERGE LATE MONDAY AND LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRI/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEDGES INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG
THE OUTER BANKS AND LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THIS FIELD BEGINNING
TO BLEED INLAND TOWARDS HIGHWAY 17. CONSEQUENTLY, EWN MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF MVFR OVERNIGHT. FARTHER INLAND, SITES THAT TEND TO
DECOUPLE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG PRE-DAWN IF UPPER CLOUD
COVER CAN REMAIN THIN ENOUGH.
VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT. SOME INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 15
KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 10-20 KT, GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE WARMER OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS...WITH SEAS 3-5 FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND 4-6 FT
SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LINGERING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS BREEZY TO STRONG NNE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. N-NE WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-6 FT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. SCAS CONT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND 6 FT SEAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF A COASTAL TROUGH
NE WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH WINDS
20-25 KTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO MARGINAL,
WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING CURRENTS SCAS OUT THIS FAR,
BUT THAT REMAINS A FUTURE POSSIBILITY.
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LET DOWN TO NE 10-20 KTS, AND THEN BY
SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 10-20 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT TO AT LEAST S
15-25 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 3-5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-7 FT SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...CQD/SGK/OJC
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