118
FXUS62 KMHX 260928
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 AM EST THU DEC 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AND A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 405 AM THU...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
LATER TODAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF
STATES, LIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE,
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS WELL OFFSHORE.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOL ADVECTS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPS LOCKED IN
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WHERE THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO
CRACK 50, BUT FARTHER SOUTH HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO
POTENTIALLY UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 415 AM THU...OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO GIVE WAY TO A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE LIFTING ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT A MINIMUM, THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST. CAMS DO HINT
AT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY OVER
OFFSHORE WATERS BUT REMAINING ASTRAY OF THE OUTER BANKS UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THUS, KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
LOWS MODERATE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THANKS TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THURS...
KEY MESSAGES
*WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN, STRONG
WINDS, AND SEVERE WEATHER TO EASTERN NC
*ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TURNING MUCH COLDER THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN AND DRIFT ONSHORE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN THE PAMLICO SOUND, WHICH WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE OUTER BANKS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY.
ONE OTHER FACTOR AT PLAY FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP CHANCES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER ANY
SHOWERS WILL TREK FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REACH THE EASTERN COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD, WILL OPT TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THERE FOR NOW
ON FRIDAY. A DECENT TEMPERATURE RANGE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS SOME CAD INFLUENCE MAY KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN
IN THE MID 50S, WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS, THE REMNANT COASTAL TROUGH WILL PIVOT FARTHER INLAND,
AND MAY HELP PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SOAR SATURDAY, BUT PARTLY TO
AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT HIGHS FROM RISING PAST
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST SUNDAY,
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND ALLOW FOR DEEP WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SWING A
SLOW MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60-80%, AND EXPANDED THUNDER
CHANCES TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TAPS INTO AND ADVECTS NORTHWARD GULF OF MEXICO AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SAY THERE IS SOME
HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, IF ALL THE
INGREDIENTS CAN COME TOGETHER.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING, AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON TUESDAY, AND BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN
TO THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MUCH COLDER FOR
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRI/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEDGES INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG
THE OUTER BANKS AND LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THIS FIELD BEGINNING
TO BLEED INLAND TOWARDS HIGHWAY 17. CONSEQUENTLY, EWN MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF MVFR OVERNIGHT. FARTHER INLAND, SITES THAT TEND TO
DECOUPLE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG PRE-DAWN IF UPPER CLOUD
COVER CAN REMAIN THIN ENOUGH.
VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT. SOME INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 15
KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS MORNING WHILE WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS, FELT MOST OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE
MIXING IS STRONGEST. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS OF 10-15
KT AND SEAS 5-6 FEET OFFSHORE.
THE GRADIENT WILL NOT EASE MUCH DURING THE DAY, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE POINTING TO A SHORT INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER TO SHORE. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, STRONGER WINDS ARE FAVORED TO LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EXTENDED THE SCA TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MIGRATES FURTHER NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURS...DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LET DOWN TO NE 10-20 KTS, AND THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 10-15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT TO AT LEAST S 15-25 KTS, BUT
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 3-5
FT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-7 FT SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6-8 FT, AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 4-6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK/MS
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