802
FXUS62 KMHX 262040
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EST THU DEC 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AND A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1515 THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE
CAROLINAS AS MID LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TODAY
AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS WELL
OFFSHORE.
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY INCH TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO GIVE WAY TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FUELED BY A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE
LIFTING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT A MINIMUM, THE
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
COAST. CAMS DO HINT AT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EERN PERIPHERY OF
THE PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL THE W. HAVE KEPT THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR ALL LAND AREAS.
LOWS MODERATE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THANKS TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 1515 THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY, A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT ONSHORE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS/COASTAL FRONT.
THE AXIS/FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN
THE PAMLICO SOUND, WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO
THE OUTER BANKS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. ONE OTHER FACTOR AT PLAY
FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL TREK FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO REACH THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD,
WILL OPT TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THERE FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. A
DECENT TEMPERATURE RANGE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME CAD INFLUENCE MAY KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE MID 50S,
WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 PM THURS...
KEY MESSAGES
*WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN, STRONG
WINDS, AND SEVERE WEATHER TO EASTERN NC
*ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TURNING MUCH COLDER THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, THE REMNANT COASTAL TROUGH
WILL PIVOT FARTHER INLAND, AND MAY HELP PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL SOAR SATURDAY, BUT PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL LIMIT HIGHS FROM RISING PAST THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST SUNDAY,
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND ALLOW FOR DEEP WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SWING A
SLOW MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60-80%, AND EXPANDED THUNDER
CHANCES TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TAPS INTO AND ADVECTS NORTHWARD GULF OF MEXICO AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SAY THERE IS SOME
HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, IF ALL THE
INGREDIENTS CAN COME TOGETHER.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING, AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON TUESDAY, AND BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN
TO THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MUCH COLDER FOR
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRI/...
AS OF 1200 THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY, THOUGH COASTAL SITES MAY SEE SUBVFR CIGS
SHOULD LOW LEVEL STRATUS OFFSHORE PENETRATE INLAND FAR ENOUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
EWN THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER MAY BE ADDED LATER FOR OAJ FOR
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. COASTAL
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES WHILE INCHING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWER
CHANCES. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THE MULTIPLE DRY LAYERS IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN,
THINK THE LOWERING CIGS ADVERTISED ARE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE. HAVE
SHOWN LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH A SCT MVFR DECK DEVELOPING
BY MIDMORNING. ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND THUNDER
FREE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1530 THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE
RESULTANT GRADIENT IS KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ELEVATED OVER
THE WATERS, FELT MOST OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE MIXING IS
STRONGEST. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND
SEAS 4-6 FEET OFFSHORE.
THE GRADIENT WILL NOT EASE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, STRONGER WINDS ARE FAVORED TO LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA TO THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THUNDER FREE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LET DOWN TO NE 10-20 KTS, AND THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 10-15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT TO AT LEAST S 15-25 KTS, BUT
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 3-5
FT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-7 FT SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6-8 FT, AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 4-6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB
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