580
FXUS62 KMHX 270555
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1255 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AND A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 945 PM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR LATE EVE UPDATE, MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. AT THE SURFACE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS
OFFSHORE.
OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY INCH TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO GIVE WAY TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FUELED BY A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO BE
LIFTING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AT A MINIMUM, THE
TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
COAST. WHILE SCT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SE NC, WITH
THE BOUNDARY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
WELL THE W. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ADDED A SC SHOWER MENTION
ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOWS MODERATE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THANKS TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 1515 THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN AND DRIFT ONSHORE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS/COASTAL
FRONT. THE AXIS/FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER INLAND
THAN THE PAMLICO SOUND, WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE OUTER BANKS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. ONE OTHER FACTOR AT PLAY
FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL TREK FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO REACH THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD,
WILL OPT TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THERE FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. A
DECENT TEMPERATURE RANGE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME CAD INFLUENCE MAY KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE MID 50S,
WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COAST SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 PM THURS...
KEY MESSAGES
*WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
*A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING, AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN, STRONG
WINDS, AND SEVERE WEATHER TO EASTERN NC
*ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAIN LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TURNING MUCH COLDER THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, THE REMNANT COASTAL TROUGH
WILL PIVOT FARTHER INLAND, AND MAY HELP PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL SOAR SATURDAY, BUT PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL LIMIT HIGHS FROM RISING PAST THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST SUNDAY,
IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND ALLOW FOR DEEP WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SWING A
SLOW MOVING BUT POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO 60-80%, AND EXPANDED THUNDER
CHANCES TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE WAA OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TAPS INTO AND ADVECTS NORTHWARD GULF OF MEXICO AND
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SAY THERE IS SOME
HIGHER END SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM, IF ALL THE
INGREDIENTS CAN COME TOGETHER.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING, AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUING MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ZIP
ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON TUESDAY, AND BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN
TO THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MUCH COLDER FOR
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...
AS OF 1255 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD MVFR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH
SHARPENING TROUGHING OFFSHORE OVERRUNNING A COOL HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE AT THE SURFACE. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE
PESSIMISTICALLY WITH DURATION OF LOWER CIGS AND IS IN LINE WITH
MORE AGGRESSIVE HI-RES GUIDANCE, POINTING TO PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE, CIGS WILL SCATTER
ABOUT BUT SOME BOUNCES BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW
STRONG AND EXPANSIVE THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL BE. IFR OR WORSE
CIGS ARE LIKELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND SOME OF
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE HAS THIS EXTENDING INTO THE INNER
COASTAL PLAIN. FOR NOW, LEANED THE FORECAST ON THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AFTER 00Z SAT BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME LOW END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK. BY LATE SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG NNE WINDS
15-25 KT GUSTING 25-30 KT ACROSS THE WARMER OUTER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS KEEPING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS, FELT MOST OVER THE
GULF STREAM WHERE MIXING IS STRONGEST. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT
EASE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, STRONGER
WINDS ARE FAVORED TO LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA TO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT
INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THUNDER FREE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURS...DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LET DOWN TO NE 10-20 KTS, AND THEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SE AT 10-15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF IT TO AT LEAST S 15-25 KTS, BUT
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 3-5
FT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 4-7 FT SUNDAY. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6-8 FT, AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 4-6 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...CQD/SGK/CEB
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