659
FNUS72 KMHX 091710
FWSMHX
SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOSE CREEK STATE PARK RX...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1210 PM EST THU JAN 9 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EST ON JANUARY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.
DISCUSSION.
THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY,
WHICH WILL OVERLAP WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MIN RH VALUES
WILL FALL TO 30-35% THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH NW WIND GUSTS
20-25 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL OVERLAP WITH AN
INCREASED RISK OF WETTING PRECIPITATION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND DRY NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15
MPH LATE.
VENT RATE...........MAX 99589 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 2.
ADI.................MAX 66.
STABILITY CLASS.....3.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SFC PRESSURE........30.08 TO 30.11 INHG.
TIME (EST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........0 3 3 1 0 0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............35 37 39 39 38 34
RH..............34 31 28 28 31 36
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 11 10 8
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 18 18 18 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 22 21 21 20 13
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 2
ADI.............66 62 57 56 50 10
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.100 92 82 79 67 6
SFC PRES (IN)...011 010 009 008 008 010
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20.
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
VENT RATE...........MIN 3679 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 3.
ADI.................MIN 4.
STABILITY CLASS.....6.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SFC PRESSURE........30.12 TO 30.16 INHG.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............30 29 28 27 26 25 25 24 23 23 22 21
RH..............44 48 50 55 57 60 60 62 65 65 68 71
20 FT WIND DIR..NW W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 9 9 9 9
LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
SFC PRES (IN)...012 014 014 015 015 015 016 016 016 015 015 015
FORECASTER...DAIL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500344.0/MHX
.DELDT 01/09/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MATT.WINDSOR@NCPARKS.GOV
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