152
FXUS62 KMHX 291505
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1005 AM WED...BREEZY DAY FORECAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A QUICK MOVING
CLIPPER CURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS UP TO
15-20 KT AND EXPECT THIS TO TICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. HIGHEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY
NORTH OF US 70. A DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH TD'S IN THE 30S AND
TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL PRODUCE LOW RH'S IN THE LOW 30S FOR ALL
BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE A PINNED SEABREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER (50S) AND RH'S HIGHER (40S-60S%).
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...WINDS TURN NWRLY AND EVENTUALLY NRLY OVERNIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SKIES REMAIN MO CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT TO CALM LATE AS COOL HIGH
BUILDS INTO ENC. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 30S FOR
MOST, WITH LOW 40S CTRL/SRN OBX.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT
- SATURDAY - SUNDAY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
- WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK
THURSDAY...TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO ON THU WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEG INLAND, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF.
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BE TRANSITORY AND
THEREFORE SHORT- LIVED, AS STRONG, COMPACT, NEUTRAL-TILT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY ON FRI AND
OFF THE EAST COAST FRI NIGHT. SFC REFLECTION WILL FEATURE A
STRONG COLD FRONT. GOM WILL BE WIDE OPEN AS DEEP LAYER SSWRLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. BY THE PRE- DAWN HOURS, RAIN WILL ALREADY BE OFF
THE COAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA, ESP
INLAND. NEAR THE COAST, A STRONG BUT SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION
WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO A 70S AIRMASS OVERTOPPING SST'S IN THE
40S. THUS HAVE PLACED A HIGHER WEIGHT ON THE CMC, WHICH
INITIALIZES SST'S CORRECTLY. GFS/NCEP SST'S/WINDS ARE HIGH-
BIASED AND HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. NEVERTHELESS, SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH FOR
ALL AREAS OF ENC. CONT TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST, AS
AGAIN, THE NEAR SHORE/SOUNDS ARE QUITE COLD AND WILL INHIBIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS ENC WITH MARITIME AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA ON THE SSWRLY FLOW REGIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
BY SUNRISE SAT, AND THEREFORE A DRY FCST WILL ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMO, IN THE 55-60
DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS, WITH LOW 50S OBX DUE TO THE COOLER
SURROUNDING WATERS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MON WITH TEMPS
LIKELY WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED NIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...POTENTIAL FOR LLWS FOR KPGV THIS MORNING AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING, THE
LLWS WILL DECREASE AS GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE INCREASE. WEST
TO WSW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-25KT DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS ABATE BY SUNSET AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY,
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY BUT LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. DRY AIRMASS
WILL HINDER ANY FG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE REGION AS A LOW
LIFTS NORTH FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SW FLOW, LOWERING CEILINGS AND NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRI EVENING. SW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH LIKELY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...PINCHED WSW TO SW GRADIENT APPARENT EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE GUSTING 25-30 KT. FOR THE
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS AND SOUNDS, ONLY 15 TO OCNL 15-20 KT AS
STRONG MARINE INVERSION PERSISTS WITH COLD SST'S. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TODAY, THOUGH OVER LAND, GUSTY WINDS AT THE
LAND/WATER INTERFACE MAY BLEED OVER THE INLAND RIVERS, AS WELL
AS ALBEMARLE AND ALLIGATOR, WITH SOME INFREQUENT 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WELL MIXED WARM BOUNDARY LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN NWRLY THIS EVENING AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, AND WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WATERS
BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM WED...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVERHEAD.
N-NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25 KT (PEAKING LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING)
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-10 FT. SCAS LIKELY FOR THE WATERS, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FOR THE OUTER WATERS NEAR
THE GULF STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND. N-NW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT SAT AND N-NE WINDS
5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT SUN.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/MS
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
CLIMATE...MHX
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