806
FXUS62 KMHX 292036
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 325 PM WED...BREEZY BUT WARM DAY ACROSS ENC AS WEAK COLD
FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING CLIPPER EXITING OFF THE GULF
OF MAINE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD, IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
APART FROM SOME THIN PASSING CIRRI, SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AS
AIRMASS IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY (PER THE 12Z MHX RAOB PWAT OF
0.25"). BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. BY DAWN THURSDAY, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS DROP DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN POST-FRONTAL CAA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 PM WED...BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW, KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO EXPAND FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY.
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BRINGS NEAR-CLIMO TEMPS, IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 SOUTH OF US 70. COOLER ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS
NOBX QUITE A BIT COOLER, ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM WED...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT
- SATURDAY - SUNDAY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
- WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG, COMPACT, NEUTRAL-TILT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY ON FRI AND OFF THE
EAST COAST FRI NIGHT. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, WITH
RAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST-
TO-EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, RAIN WILL ALREADY BE OFF THE COAST.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA, ESP INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST, A STRONG BUT SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
DUE TO A 70S AIRMASS OVERTOPPING SST'S IN THE 40S. THUS HAVE
PLACED A HIGHER WEIGHT ON THE CMC, WHICH INITIALIZES SST'S
CORRECTLY. GFS/NCEP SST'S/WINDS ARE HIGH- BIASED AND HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTED. NEVERTHELESS, SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH FOR ALL AREAS OF ENC. CONT
TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST, AS AGAIN, THE NEAR
SHORE/SOUNDS ARE QUITE COLD AND WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY ACROSS
ENC WITH MARITIME AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THE SSWRLY
FLOW REGIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
BY SUNRISE SAT, AND THEREFORE A DRY FCST WILL ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMO, IN THE 55-60
DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS, WITH LOW 50S OBX DUE TO THE COOLER
SURROUNDING WATERS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MON WITH TEMPS
LIKELY WARMING TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW 60S OBX.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THUR/...
AS OF 1225 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND A QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH LITTLE FANFARE APART FROM A WIND SHIFT AND MODEST INCREASE
IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND CREST OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN A STEADY VEERING
WIND TO NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE REGION AS A LOW LIFTS
NORTH FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SW FLOW, LOWERING CEILINGS AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS FRI EVENING. SW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WED...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. OVER OPEN SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM, WINDS ARE
AROUND 20 KT WITH FREQUENT 25 KT GUSTS, WHILE FOR SOUNDSIDE
WATERS AND THE COOLER LABRADOR CURRENT WINDS ARE CLOSER TO 15
KT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, AND WINDS VEER
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE WHILE STEADILY
WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS
TOMORROW AND QUICKLY PIVOTS OFFSHORE, AND IN RESPONSE WINDS
STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
REMAINING AT AROUND 10 KT.
BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING WINDS, SEAS (CURRENTLY 5-7 FEET IN
BREEZIEST LOCATIONS) WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXISTING HEADLINES WERE
LEFT INTACT WITH NO CHANGES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT (PEAKING LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING) WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-10 FT. SCAS LIKELY FOR
THE WATERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. N-NW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT
SAT AND N-NE WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT SUN.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/MS
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/TL/ZC
AVIATION...CQD/MS/ZC
MARINE...CQD/TL/ZC
CLIMATE...MHX
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