477
FXUS62 KMHX 300325
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1025 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL IN THE PRE-FRONTAL,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I
INCREASED TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRIOR TO THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BREEZY BUT WARM DAY ACROSS ENC AS WEAK
COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING CLIPPER EXITING OFF THE
GULF OF MAINE SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD, IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
APART FROM SOME THIN PASSING CIRRI, SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AS
AIRMASS IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY (PER THE 12Z MHX RAOB PWAT OF
0.25"). BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. BY DAWN THURSDAY, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS DROP DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN POST-FRONTAL CAA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 PM WED...BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW, KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO EXPAND FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY.
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BRINGS NEAR-CLIMO TEMPS, IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 SOUTH OF US 70. COOLER ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS
NOBX QUITE A BIT COOLER, ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM WED...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT
- SATURDAY - SUNDAY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
- WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG, COMPACT, NEUTRAL-TILT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY ON FRI AND OFF THE
EAST COAST FRI NIGHT. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, WITH
RAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST-
TO-EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, RAIN WILL ALREADY BE OFF THE COAST.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA, ESP INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST, A STRONG BUT SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE
DUE TO A 70S AIRMASS OVERTOPPING SST'S IN THE 40S. THUS HAVE
PLACED A HIGHER WEIGHT ON THE CMC, WHICH INITIALIZES SSTS
CORRECTLY. GFS/NCEP SSTS/WINDS ARE HIGH-BIASED AND HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTED. NEVERTHELESS, SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH FOR ALL AREAS OF ENC. CONT
TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST, AS AGAIN, THE NEAR
SHORE/SOUNDS ARE QUITE COLD AND WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY ACROSS
ENC WITH MARITIME AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THE SSWRLY
FLOW REGIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE
BY SUNRISE SAT, AND THEREFORE A DRY FCST WILL ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMO, IN THE 55-60
DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS, WITH LOW 50S OBX DUE TO THE COOLER
SURROUNDING WATERS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MON WITH TEMPS
LIKELY WARMING TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW 60S OBX.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS, AND SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 06Z-07Z TONIGHT. THE TAFS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT AN EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR TAF SITES IN THE 03Z-04Z
TIMEFRAME. A WNW TO NW WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT,
BUT GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE MUCH AS IT MOVES THROUGH. OF NOTE, WINDS ALOFT OF
30-35KT ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER,
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2000FT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE LLWS POTENTIAL. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR LLWS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE W OR SW, BUT THE
LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A
LOW/MARGINAL LLWS RISK, THEREFORE I'VE OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING E OR SE, BUT
REMAINING LIGHT.
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM EAST ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN VFR, AND MOSTLY
ABOVE 10K FT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE REGION AS A LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW
FLOW, LOWERING CEILINGS AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRI
EVENING. SW WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST NOW REACHED THE NORTHERN WATERS, WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND A BUMP UP IN WINDS. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
MOVED THROUGH, MARINE OBS HAVE SHOWN BRIEF GUSTS TO 20KT ARE
OCCURRING. THE DURATION LOOKS SHORT-LIVED, BUT I INCREASED GUSTS
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MOST WATERS WILL STAY BELOW 25KT (WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
WATERS WHERE HEADLINES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVER OPEN SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM, WINDS
ARE AROUND 20 KT WITH FREQUENT 25 KT GUSTS, WHILE FOR SOUNDSIDE
WATERS AND THE COOLER LABRADOR CURRENT, WINDS ARE CLOSER TO 15
KT. FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, AND WINDS VEER
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE WHILE STEADILY
WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS
TOMORROW AND QUICKLY PIVOTS OFFSHORE, AND IN RESPONSE WINDS
STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
REMAINING AT AROUND 10 KT.
BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING WINDS, SEAS (CURRENTLY 5-7 FEET IN
BREEZIEST LOCATIONS) WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXISTING HEADLINES WERE
LEFT INTACT WITH NO CHANGES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WED...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT (PEAKING LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING) WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-10 FT. SCAS LIKELY FOR
THE WATERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FOR THE
OUTER WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. N-NW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT
SAT AND N-NE WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT SUN.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL/MS
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/TL/ZC
AVIATION...RM/CQD/ZC
MARINE...RM/CQD/TL/ZC
CLIMATE...MHX
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