297
FXUS62 KMHX 301752
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1252 PM EST THU JAN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 10 AM THURSDAY...MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE WITH THE MID-
MORNING UPDATE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LESS CLOUD COVER
THAN EXPECTED, SO TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY. OVERALL, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW-60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ALONG THE COAST, THE COOL
WATERS WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM THU...VEERING SFC WINDS AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
WARM FRONT ALOFT CROSSES. THIS WILL ONLY BRING AN INC IN CLOUDS,
WITH ANY RAIN REMAINING NORTH OF THE VA BORDER. LOWS, IN THE
LOW 40S, WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMP
CURVE THEREAFTER, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE BY
SUNRISE FRI AS SRLY FLOW COMMENCES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG, COMPACT, NEUTRAL-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY ON FRI AND OFF THE EAST COAST FRI
NIGHT. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE REFLECTION WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENT CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST-TO-EAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS,
RAIN WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA, ESP INLAND. NEAR THE COAST, A STRONG BUT
SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE DUE TO A 70S AIRMASS
OVERTOPPING SST'S IN THE 40S. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH FOR ALL AREAS OF ENC.
CONT TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST, AS AGAIN, THE NEAR
SHORE/SOUNDS ARE QUITE COLD AND WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY ACROSS
ENC WITH MARITIME AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THE SSWRLY
FLOW REGIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE SAT, AND THEREFORE A DRY FCST WILL ENSUE FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE CLIMO, IN THE 55-60
DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS, WITH LOW 50S OBX DUE TO THE COOLER
SURROUNDING WATERS. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPS LIKELY WARMING TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND MID 50S/LOW 60S
OBX.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 12:40 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME BKN TO OVC DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. LLWS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A 35-40 KT LLJ OVER
INLAND TERMINALS. TOMORROW, BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT (30 KT
OBX).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...FRIDAY A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
AS A LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW FLOW, LOWERING CEILINGS AND
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRI EVENING. SW WIND GUSTS 20-30
KT LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRES
PASSES THROUGH. WINDS BEGIN OUT OF THE NORTH, THEN VEER ERLY TO
SERLY LATER TODAY, THEN BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT, INC TO SCA LEVELS
ON THE WARMER GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. REST OF THE
WATERS AND SOUNDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS STRONG MARINE INVERSION
DEVELOPS WITH WARMING AIRMASS OVER THE COLD WATERS. SEAS OF 2-4
FT TODAY BUILD TO 3-5 FEET SOUTH OF OREGON INLET LATER THIS
EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SSW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT GUSTING 25-35 KT FRIDAY (PEAKING LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING) WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-10 FT. HAVE
ISSUED SCAS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS, SOUNDS AND INLAND RIVERS
ALONG WITH GALE WATCHES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. N-NW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT SAT AND N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT AND
SEAS 3-5 FT SUN. FLOW VEERS AROUND BECOMING SW 5-15 KT MON WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 01/31 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1950 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 71/1975 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 79/1927 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1950 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 80/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 79/1975 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/ZC
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...CQD/TL
CLIMATE...MHX
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